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Flash
- 19:33Powell Avoids Providing September Rate Guidance as US Treasury Yields RiseAccording to Jinse Finance, the bond market is translating Powell's remarks into a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries. Since 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time, when Powell began answering reporters' questions, yields have been rising, in sharp contrast to the decline in yields that followed the Federal Reserve's earlier split decision at 2:00 p.m. to keep rates unchanged. Powell avoided giving explicit guidance for the September meeting, stating only that upcoming data would guide monetary policy. The market had previously expected the Fed to cut rates at the September meeting. As a result, the U.S. 10-year yield rose from 4.342% when Powell took the stage to 4.378%.
- 19:33Traders see less than a 50% chance of a rate cut in SeptemberAccording to Jinse Finance, traders now estimate the probability of a rate cut in September to be below 50%, compared to around 60% before the meeting.
- 19:27Analyst: Fed Rate Cut Expectations for September Cool Down, but Markets Still Seem to Be Waiting for a SignalAccording to ChainCatcher, market analysts have noted that, frankly, the current decline in U.S. stocks is surprisingly modest, with the S&P 500 currently down just 0.4%. Yesterday, the market placed a 68% probability on a Fed rate cut in September, but that likelihood has now sharply dropped to only 45%. Despite such a significant shift in policy expectations, the market has not seen a more pronounced sell-off, reflecting the resilience of investor sentiment, or perhaps investors are still waiting for further confirmation signals.