News

According to the latest data from Polymarket, on June 14, the probability of Iran blocking or closing the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints—rose to 45% at one point. The data shows that this probability is nearly double the 24% recorded on June 11. Just a few hours earlier, Israel had finally carried out its long-standing threat to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude oil prices above $120.

According to data from Coinglass, liquidations across the entire network reached $158 million in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $73.45 million and short positions for $84.48 million.

On June 15, here are the key events and data that the market will focus on next week (all times in UTC+8):

Tuesday 20:30, US May retail sales month-on-month, previous value 0.10%;

Wednesday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14, previous value 248,000;

Thursday 02:00, US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) for June 18, previous value 4.50%;

Thursday 02:00, Federal Reserve FOMC releases rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections;

Thursday 02:30, Federal Reserve Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference. (Jin10)

David Carvalho, founder, CEO, and chief scientist of Naoris Protocol, stated that government agencies such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the National Security Agency (NSA) aim to fully transition to quantum-safe standards by 2030. However, the Bitcoin community appears to be limited to theoretical solutions, such as BIP-360 (quantum-resistant hash payments) or proposals for delayed reveal of commitments. The era of empty talk is over. If concrete measures are not taken now to adapt the Bitcoin blockchain, Bitcoin’s $2.2 trillion market capitalization could vanish. Just a single compromised wallet or a poorly executed transaction could destroy the trust that has been painstakingly built over the past 16 years.

According to CoinDesk, Brazil has abolished its long-standing tax exemption policy on cryptocurrency gains. Under the new provisional measure (Decree No. 1303), individual profits from cryptocurrencies will be uniformly taxed at a rate of 17.5%. Previously, individuals could sell up to 35,000 reais (approximately $6,300) worth of cryptocurrencies per month without being taxed. Before this change, gains exceeding that threshold were subject to a progressive tax rate, with the highest rate reaching 22.5% for transaction amounts over $5.4 million.

Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $104,500 and is currently quoted at $104,507.25, with a 24-hour decline of 0.94%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please manage your risks accordingly.

Jeremy Allaire, co-founder and CEO of USDC stablecoin issuer Circle, stated on the X platform that stablecoins may be the most practical form of currency ever, but the “iPhone moment” for the stablecoin industry has not yet arrived. However, once the stablecoin market enters the so-called “iPhone era,” developers will be able to unlock programmable digital dollars just as they unlocked programmable mobile devices. At that point, programmable digital dollars will unleash their power and create opportunities on the internet, and this era may be approaching soon.

According to Iranian state television, Iran is expected to launch a fierce and destructive attack against Israel within hours. (Jin10)