Next Week's Macro Outlook: Powell to Take the Stage Under Intense Pressure

BlockBeats News, July 19 — In the coming week, manufacturing and services PMIs from Europe and the US will offer any signs of the impact of Trump’s tariff policies. On the central bank front, the Federal Reserve enters its blackout period ahead of the July FOMC meeting, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has recently been at the center of a media storm, will make a public appearance. Market participants will be watching closely to see if he responds to Trump’s recent attacks. The European Central Bank will announce its latest rate decision.

On Tuesday at 20:30, Fed Chair Powell will deliver a welcome address at a regulatory conference;

On Thursday at 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its rate decision; at 20:45, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference;

On Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19 will be released.

This week, reports emerged that Trump had discussed the idea of firing Powell with other Republicans. However, he quickly downplayed these discussions, saying it was “highly unlikely” that Powell would be dismissed. If Powell insists on defending the Fed’s independence and reiterates the need for patience while waiting for more data to show the impact of tariffs, the US dollar is likely to extend its recovery.

That said, it is still too early to talk about a bullish reversal for the dollar. Although the global reserve currency has responded positively to recent tariff-related headlines, if tariffs begin to heighten concerns about a recession, traders may still react as they did in April—by selling the dollar.