Record Q2, monthly close next? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
2025/06/30 14:16Bitcoin ( BTC ) heads into a key double candle close just inches from records; can bulls stay in control?
Bitcoin order-book liquidity games continue as the monthly and quarterly close sets the stage for sudden price moves.
BTC/USD only needs to close June at $104,630 to seal its highest-ever monthly close.
A calm week for US macro data keeps attention focused on the Fed after Powell’s congressional testimony.
Bitcoin faces a “critical demand deficit” as buyer power fails to match distribution by long-term holders.
Does Bitcoin only have three months of its bull market left?
BTC price volatility ramps up as “games” return
A timely uptick on Sunday placed BTC/USD on track for its highest weekly close on record above $109,000.
While this ultimately failed, a week-long trading range continues to hold as June and Q2 come to an end, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show.
At the time of writing on Monday, BTC/USD had already closed the latest “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market created during the weekend moves.
$BTC Has opened up with a small CME gap below.
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 30, 2025
Keep an eye on this area as we've pretty much seen all CME gaps fill at the start of the week, in recent months. pic.twitter.com/QCxBUgShuO
Analyzing the close, which came in at around $108,400 on Bitstamp, trader Skew attributed last-minute price strength to a “predatory” algorithmic trading bot.
“Games are being played here thus far, but keeping a close eye on flow,” he summarized in an accompanying post on X.
As part of those “games,” Skew observed that the algorithm’s actions had pushed the market to a point where it even liquidated a $12 million BTC short position before retracing its gains.
“This same entity pumped BTC 2 weeks ago, and BTC dumped the day after that,” fellow trader BitBull continued on the topic.
As Cointelegraph reported , order book liquidity manipulation by large-volume traders has contributed to various price fakeouts in recent months.
A monthly close unlike any other?
With the weekly close falling short of record highs, two other candles now come into focus on BTC/USD.
The June monthly close will also decide Q2 BTC price performance, which currently envisages impressive 30% gains.
Even June itself, despite ending up a rollercoaster of headline-driven volatility, is on track to end up “green,” per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass .
Bitcoin traders are thus confident that this month could act as a springboard for a stronger return to form.
17 hours away from locking in another record-breaking monthly close.
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) June 30, 2025
Broke the January highs last month - retested them this month, and pushed higher once more.
July should be even better. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/UAsHi9Vt5Q
To seal the highest monthly close of all time, BTC price action must only hold $104,630, giving bulls leeway for a roughly 2.9% dip.
The limits to last-minute volatility could be decided by exchange order-book liquidity.
Monitoring resource Material Indicators notes plenty of near-term price magnets both above and below current levels.
“Ask liquidity is concentrated in the $108k - $110k range while bid liquidity is distributed down to $98k, which could invite some volatility over the next 24 - 48 hours,” it summarized on X alongside a print of Binance order-book liquidity.
Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan added that he “expects” another liquidity grab to the downside, despite the prospect of record candle closes.
Nonfarm payrolls due as market cements rate-cut bets
The Independence Day holiday rounds off what is ostensibly a quiet week for US macroeconomic data.
Crypto and risk-asset traders can thus pause for thought as an unprecedented split between Federal Reserve policy and political will hangs in the air.
While many Fed officials and Chair Jerome Powell remain steadfast in their determination not to cut interest rates, US President Donald Trump continues to openly criticize their decisions.
This has included calling Powell a “stupid person,” in addition to claiming that the Fed is too late in starting a fresh rate-cut cycle, with Trump even sparking rumors of Powell’s dismissal.
“For the time being, we are well-positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” Powell told Congress at the start of two days of testimony last week.
While markets see little chance of a cut coming at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of July, the September gathering now has 75% odds of a 0.25% reduction, per the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool .
As Cointelegraph reported , Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michaelle Bowman hinted that she would be open to a July cut if data were to allow.
This week’s main point of interest, meanwhile, comes in the form of nonfarm payrolls data on Thursday.
“Critical demand deficit”
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to cause concern as Q2 comes to a close.
Research warned that the reactivation of dormant coins, combined with the newly mined supply, is currently outpacing demand from buyers.
In one of its “ Quicktake ” blog posts on Sunday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant did not mince its words, describing the situation as a “critical demand deficit.”
“The flow of coins onto the market from miners and profit-taking LTHs is now greater than what new buyers are purchasing,” contributor Crazzyblockk wrote.
“This is a bearish development for two reasons: It directly increases the ‘for sale’ supply, putting downward pressure on the price. Selling by LTHs, often considered ‘smart money,’ can signal that experienced players believe the market has reached a local top.”
CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand metric, which subtracts LTH and newly mined coins from buyer pressure, is now negative on a rolling 30-day basis.
The last time negative Apparent Demand was recorded came as BTC/USD emerged from multimonth lows under $75,000 in April.
“Consequently, the market is in a vulnerable state. Any price rallies from here will likely struggle to overcome this wave of available supply, and market support may be weaker than anticipated,” CryptoQuant concluded.
“While not a guarantee, this onchain signal strongly suggests a period of caution is warranted until demand shows clear signs of recovery.”
Time is ticking for the Bitcoin bull market
Bitcoin price action may be just several months away from its next bull market top.
Related: Bitcoin ‘Satoshi-era’ miners sold just 150 BTC in 2025 amid all-time highs
The latest commentary from trader and analyst Rekt Capital includes references to historical price cycle behavior while arguing that the blow-off top may be closer than many believe.
“If Bitcoin is going to peak in its Bull Market in September/October 2025 as per historical Halving cycles…,” he told X followers in one of several recent posts on the topic.
“That’s only 2-3 months away.”
Rekt Capital noted that in 2024, BTC/USD hit new all-time highs ahead of schedule before April’s block subsidy halving event. History dictates that cycle highs ultimately come on time.
“In 2024, Bitcoin was experiencing acceleration in its cycle by 260 days when it rallied to new All Time Highs before the Halving. Since then, Bitcoin has reduced that acceleration to 0,” he continued .
“In fact, what if Bitcoin is now experiencing a slowing down in its cycle?”
If a slowdown is the case, BTC/USD should thus make up for lost time with significant gains and a return to price discovery sooner rather than later.
“It’s true that Bitcoin’s first Price Discovery Correction has lasted longer than usual. But Bitcoin tends to overperform and underperform in different phases in the cycle,” Rekt Capital concluded.
“So when Bitcoin breaks out into a parabolic rally, it would probably drastically reduce whatever ‘cycle extension’ BTC brought on itself over the past several months.”
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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