Cena Jones DAOJONES

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,100 points on Monday. The S&P 500 also jumped 3.25%, the Nasdaq Composite surged nearly 4.34%, and the Russell 2000 rose 3.56%. Tech and retail stocks, many of which arebeen heavily exposed to China, led the rally. Tesla gained 7%, Apple rose 6%, and Amazon jumped 8%. Dell and Best Buy also posted strong gains. Following high-stakes negotiations over the weekend in Geneva, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were lowered to 30% from recent highs of 145%, while Beijing cut its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to 10%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the talks “very productive,” and said a new round of discussions could take place within weeks. President Trump hailed the deal as a “total reset” of U.S.-China trade relations, noting that a separate 20% tariff related to fentanyl enforcement would remain in place. Markets, which had been rattled since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff escalation in April, reacted positively. The Dow is now down just 0.32% or 134 points since the start of 2025 while the Nasdaq is still down more than 3%. The tariff rollback will remain in effect for 90 days as both sides pursue a more comprehensive agreement. The U.S. Treasury said it collected $7.6 billion more in duties last month, underscoring the scale of the trade disruption. Bitcoin ( BTC ) fell 2.75% to $100,771 as of Monday afternoon, pulling back from nearly $106,000 reached earlier in the day. Bitcoin is currently trading near $101,900. The drop followed news of the aforementioned temporary 90-day U.S.-China tariff suspension, which eased macro uncertainty but led traders to “sell the news” after a month-long rally from April’s lows under $75,000. The decline suggests Bitcoin’s recent outperformance may cool as broader markets like equities catch up.

Trade talks boosted sentiment as U.S. stocks opened higher, with Coinbase up more than 4% Trade negotiations boosted sentiment, and the three major U.S. stock indices opened sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.6%, the S&P 500 up nearly 3%, the Nasdaq up 4%, Coinbase up 4.77%, and Strategy up 0.47%.

The world of investment has been revolutionized over the past decade by the democratization of ETFs and passive management. However, this investment strategy is beginning to show worrying signs of fatigue. With potentially overvalued markets and forecasts of anemic returns for the next decade, it is urgent to question ETFs. The Shiller CAPE indicator (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings), a valuation measure that examines stock prices relative to average earnings over 10 years, is currently reaching alarming levels. Historically, high values of this indicator have preceded periods of low returns, notably before the crashes of 1929, 2000 and 2007. Currently, the CAPE remains at levels close to those observed in 2021, suggesting a persistent overvaluation. Major institutional players share this concern. Goldman Sachs and Black Rock predict annual returns of only 3% for the coming decade, while Bank of America anticipates between 0 and 1% per year. These projections sharply contrast with the performances investors have become accustomed to in recent years. Only Morgan Stanley remains moderately optimistic with a forecast of 7% annual returns. This situation is all the more worrying as we observe an excessive market concentration on a few tech giants. The imbalance between the valuation of the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 and the rest of the market dangerously recalls the situation preceding the 2000 tech bubble crash. The history of financial markets is marked by lost decades which many contemporary investors seem to have forgotten. Between 1966 and 1982, the Dow Jones stagnated for nearly 18 years. During the 1970s, the real annual average return on U.S. stocks was negative (-1.6%). The 2000s experienced even worse performance with an average of -3.5% per year. The Japanese case is particularly interesting. Since the burst of its financial bubble in 1990, the Nikkei index took 34 years to regain its previous levels. This prolonged period of deflation and stock market stagnation should serve as a warning to Western investors. The belief that passive approaches will continue to deliver returns similar to those of the last decade now seems to rely more on faith than on rational analysis. Several macroeconomic time bombs threaten global growth in the years to come. Demographic aging is a major challenge: in developed countries, people over 50 hold 70% of significant wealth. However, these generations consume less and prepare for retirement, which weighs on overall demand. Moreover, we could enter an unstable economic environment, oscillating between inflation and deflation. If the end of globalization and geopolitical tensions initially push prices up, a subsequent economic slowdown could lead to a deflationary spiral difficult to halt, as Japan has experienced. We may be entering a new economic era characterized by more protectionism, instability, and uncertainty. These upheavals call into question the investment strategies that worked in the last fifteen years. Faced with these challenges, a more nuanced investment approach is necessary. The relevance of the strategy strongly depends on age and investment horizon. For a young person in their 20s or 30s with several decades ahead, DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) on ETFs remains a valid method to start, even in an overvalued market. Conversely, for people aged 40-50 who make up the majority of wealth holders, caution is required. These investors cannot afford to endure a lost decade as they approach retirement. They should therefore consider alternative approaches and build an antifragile portfolio. Rather than investing blindly and regularly, it may be wise to wait for more favorable entry points when markets offer attractive valuations. This is precisely the strategy applied by Warren Buffett , who currently holds over 300 billion dollars in cash waiting for better opportunities. Passive management and ETFs are not “dead” per se, but their effectiveness depends on the context. In a rapidly inflationary environment like that observed in Turkey, stock indices can serve as effective protection against currency devaluation. Conversely, in a deflationary scenario, they could underperform for years. Financial common sense urges us to adopt a balanced position. ETFs and DCA remain valuable tools within a global investment strategy, but they should not be the sole approach, especially in a potentially overvalued market. The era of “all ETF” may be coming to an end, not because these instruments have lost their relevance, but because the economic context now demands more sophisticated and adaptive strategies. To navigate the next decade, investors will need to diversify with other asset classes such as bitcoin .

U.S. stocks ended the week mixed, with investor sentiment cautious ahead of scheduled trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in Switzerland this weekend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.0043% while the S&P 500 hovered near the flatline down 0.07% The trading action follows a preliminary U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, but new tariff rhetoric has kept markets jittery. U.S. President Donald Trump floated an “80% Tariff on China” via Truth Social, a step down from the current 145% but still above the sub-60% expectations reported earlier in the week. “Progress this week was encouraging, but we remain in the ebbs and flows of the news cycle,” said Nationwide’s Mark Hackett. “We are likely in a sideways period of volatility until we begin to get tangible outcomes.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin ( BTC ) surged above $104,000 Friday morning, driven by strong institutional inflows and ETF performance. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reached a new lifetime high in cumulative flows at $40.33 billion, per Bloomberg data. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap gave up some of its gains, trading at around $103,000 following Wall Street’s closing bell. Elsewhere, Wells Fargo noted only 13 companies have withdrawn earnings guidance this season, fewer than expected in what it calls a “positive surprise.” Stocks such as Ford, Delta, and Snap were among those pulling forecasts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose on Friday as investors responded positively to signs of a potential de-escalation in the ongoing tariff war between the United States and China. U.S. stocks picked up where they left off Thursday after President Trump announced a major trade deal with the United Kingdom. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices all opened in the green on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at cutting tariffs on Chinese imports to 80%. Trump said in a Truth Social post : “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B,” referring to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The weekend will see the U.S. and China hold trade talks after offensive and counter-offensive tariffs hit risk assets hard. U.S. Secretary Treasury Scott Bessent is among U.S. officials that will engage with Chinese counterparts in highly anticipated trade talks in Switzerland over the weekend. Also participating will be U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer. Notably, as equities climbed on May 8 and continued into Friday, cryptocurrencies also rose. Bitcoin ( BTC ), looking to put the tariff-driven chaos behind it, spiked to above $103k . Bitcoin’s gains also boosted the altcoin market, with a number of assets including Ethereum breaking key resistance areas. According to a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, retail investor bullishness recently hit a three-month high. The measure of how bullish Main Street is despite the tariffs issues, AAIS says 29% of respondents are bullish, up from a total of 20.9% the previous week. Individual investor bullishness stood at 33.3% in early February as stocks rallied.