Galaxy Research Reveals Bitcoin Peak Fell Short of $100K Inflation-Adjusted Mark

Quick Breakdown

• Bitcoin’s $126,000 all-time high equates to $99,848 in 2020 dollars after CPI adjustment. 
• US inflation eroded 20% of the dollar’s purchasing power since 2020, per Bureau of Labour Statistics data.
• Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn highlighted the finding amid ongoing dollar weakness.

 

Bitcoin’s Inflation-Adjusted High Misses Milestone

Bitcoin reached a nominal peak above $126,000 in October 2025, yet Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn states this figure never crossed $100,000 when adjusted for inflation using 2020 dollars. The adjusted high stands at $99,848, accounting for cumulative Consumer Price Index (CPI) changes from 2020 onward. Thorn shared this analysis on Tuesday, emphasizing that inflation erodes the cryptocurrency’s apparent gains in real terms.

if you adjust the price of bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100k

it actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms, if you can believe it pic.twitter.com/bo3UGfBXbY

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) December 22, 2025

The CPI, tracked by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, reflects price shifts in a basket of goods and services. November data showed a 2.7% annual rise, not seasonally adjusted, continuing to put pressure on the dollar’s value. Goods prices now sit 1.25 times higher than in 2020, meaning one dollar buys only 80% of what it did then.​

Dollar weakness fuels debasement trade.

The US Dollar Index (DXY)

11% in 2025 to 97.8, hitting a three-year low of 96.3 in September. This decline, tracked on TradingView, has accelerated since October 2022 as the dollar weakens against global currencies. Inflation peaked above 9% in mid-2022 during the COVID-19 aftermath and lingers above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Thorn’s revelation underscores the “debasement trade,” in which investors shift to assets like Bitcoin, expected to preserve value amid fiat erosion. US CPI recently fell to its lowest level since 2021, yet liquidity hunts persist in crypto markets. Analysts note Bitcoin’s resilience amid these macro shifts, with potential dips to $65,000 in 2026 amid regulatory speculation. Bitcoin’s real-value perspective arrives as traditional finance grapples with persistent inflation, prompting fresh debates on crypto as a hedge.

Meanwhile, VanEck’s analysis suggests Bitcoin’s price drop is a healthy market reset, not a terminal decline. While on-chain activity and miner participation softened, structural liquidity is improving as speculative leverage is removed. A divergence exists: exchange-traded products saw outflows, but corporate treasuries aggressively bought, and long-term holders held firm. Miner capitulation and reduced risk appetite are typically seen as contrarian indicators that precede price stabilization.