Bitunix Analyst: Non-Farm Payrolls Disappoint Once Again, Unemployment Rate Surges Above 4.5%, Clear Macro Weakness Signal, Crypto Market Enters "Policy Trading" Stage

BlockBeats News, December 17th. In the U.S., the November non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations with an addition of 64,000 jobs, but still significantly below the yearly average. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, hitting a nearly four-year high. The data for August and September was revised downward by a total of 33,000 jobs, indicating that the labor market slowdown is not just a one-month fluctuation but a continuation of structural cooling. Job growth was highly concentrated in the healthcare and construction sectors, while federal government employment continued to decline. Part-time and short-term unemployment numbers increased, reflecting a trend towards conservative labor practices.

From a policy perspective, the soft non-farm payroll numbers coupled with the rising unemployment rate further strengthened the market's pricing in of an "early pivot" by the Federal Reserve. Although average hourly earnings still maintained a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, amidst the data distortion caused by the government shutdown and frequent revisions, market trust in a single number has waned. The focus is now on trends and the policy response function.

For the crypto market, this non-farm payroll report is a typical case of "directional positive news but with short-term high volatility." The escalating rate cut expectations are favorable for the medium-term liquidity narrative. However, the worsening job market also raises recession concerns, bringing the rate cut narrative close to its exhaustion point, making it prone to leverage unwinding and significant price swings post-event. In the short term, watch for the CPI and initial jobless claims announcements to see if the market uses macro bearish news to facilitate liquidity cleansing.

Bitunix Analyst: The current macro theme has shifted from "whether inflation is falling" to "whether job growth is slowing." The key for the crypto market lies not in a single non-farm report but in whether it continues to drive a revision of policy expectations, thereby reshaping the asset allocation logic for risk assets.