BTC Unlikely To Hit $100K By Year-end, Say Prediction Markets

The $100,000 threshold for bitcoin fascinates as much as it divides. A symbol of global adoption and a completed bull cycle, it remains, approaching the end of the year, a goal that is moving away. On predictive markets, conviction is eroding: bettors no longer believe in it. Between uncertain monetary policy and the exhaustion of bullish flows, the momentum seems suspended. The dominant scenario is no longer the explosion, but waiting. And in this in-between, bitcoin plays a more strategic than euphoric game.

Predictive markets decide : the $100,000 moves away

On predictive market platforms, the scenario of a bitcoin crossing $100,000 by December 31, after its drop below this threshold , is now largely in the minority.

Polymarket estimates this probability at only 29 %, while Kalshi, a platform regulated by the CFTC, shows 34 %. These figures, noted on December 11, reflect a market consensus: despite the bullish momentum of recent weeks, the current conditions do not seem to be met for an imminent crossing of this symbolic threshold.

The highest reached this month remains $94,600, a level not surpassed since November 13.

Several technical elements explain this caution among investors :

• The formation of an ascending triangle visible on short time frames, often interpreted as a bullish configuration, but which still needs confirmation ;

• A technical resistance located between $93,300 and $94,000, corresponding to the annual open zone, which BTC struggles to break through ;

• Daan Crypto Trades, an analyst followed on X, estimates that “the price is currently pressing against this resistance”, but that in case of a break, “it could simply retest the previous support zone around $98,000” ;

• The significant liquidity presence in this $98,000 zone could slow any upward attempt towards $100,000.

In other words, the market is in a technical waiting phase. The chart configuration opens the door for a rebound to $98,000, but does not give clear signals for a sustained crossing of the $100,000 mark in the very short term. The predictive markets therefore reflect a realistic sentiment rather than a complete rejection of the bullish scenario.

Weak institutional support

Beyond technical analysis, a key factor explains market caution: the visible slowdown of institutional purchases.

Capriole Investments points out that the daily bitcoin purchase rate by companies is declining. A dynamic that could reflect a form of exhaustion or caution, especially in an still uncertain macroeconomic context.

This slowdown in demand, often a driver of previous rallies, mechanically weighs on short-term prospects. Despite this, some players like Strategy continue their acquisitions. The firm has raised its holdings to 660,624 bitcoins, after a recent purchase of 10,624 BTC for approximately $962.7 million . However, these operations, although massive, are no longer enough on their own to pull the market up.

At the same time, expectations of a bullish revival linked to American monetary policy have not materialized. Despite the recent announcement of a Fed rate cut , investors did not rush into risky assets. The moderate crypto market reaction to this decision reflects a climate of persistent caution.

Bitcoin remains waiting for a clear signal, both technical and fundamental, to really start rising again. In this sense, immediate prospects remain constrained, even if the underlying trend remains structurally bullish according to several analysts.

In a context of persistent uncertainty, risk aversion is shaking the crypto market , relegating euphoric scenarios to the background. Bets are tightening, and the $100,000 threshold becomes less a target and more a test of patience for investors who are now more cautious than speculative.