- The charts present STH MVRV levels that show how the price reacted each time it moved under the 1.0 zone since 2018.
- The latest move shows Bitcoin slipping near the lower STH bands, as past STH dips formed strong recoveries at similar zones.
- Several lower bands now sit between the 60K and 90K areas, and each level has made important moves during the last two years.
Bitcoin trades under the 1.0 short-term holder MVRV level, as the charts show price touching several realized price bands between 90K and 60K, while past cycles reveal identical reactions at these same levels.
STH Realized Bands Show Structured Price Zones
The charts display several stacked bands that track realized value for short-term holders. These bands show the price at different standard deviation levels. The structure forms a ladder of zones that has shaped each move since 2018.
The upper bands near the +1.5 and +1 zones marked peaks in every major cycle. The curves show clear touches in 2018, then again in 2021 and later in 2025. Each touch at the upper bands produced a retreat toward lower levels soon after.
The middle bands around the 1.0 zone formed turning points across several periods. Bitcoin traded above this line during strong rallies in 2020. Bitcoin also dipped under it during periods of weakness, such as early 2024. Each dip toward the middle bands formed a reaction point that shaped the next direction.
Current Price Sits Between Upper Weakness And Lower Support Zones
The second chart focuses on the 2024 to 2025 range. The white price line shows a fall from peaks near 120K toward the 90K area. The red arrow marks the downturn that followed the latest rejection from the upper bands. This area also aligns with earlier turning points that occurred close to the same band.
The chart includes several green arrows that point to rebounds from the lower STH realized price band. These bounces occurred during the 70K to 80K region in 2024. Each rebound took place after the price touched the lower deviation bands. These events show how realizations create structured areas where market behavior changes.
The latest move sits between the mid and lower bands. The zone between 60K and 90K shows several layered supports based on earlier reactions. These supports are built from past realized values that short-term holders paid. The clusters of bands show potential areas where prices may stabilize if the downturn continues.
Historical Cycles Link STH, MVRV, and Realized Bands To Major Reversals
The green and red STH MVRV line shows how short-term holder profit conditions shift. Large green spikes above 1.5 marked cycle tops in 2018 and 2021. Deep red periods under 0.9 marked cycle lows that formed strong recoveries. Each color swing matched points where the price hit the outer realized bands.
The long-term chart shows these structures repeating across seven years. Bitcoin consistently reacted when the price moved near the +1.5 deviation bands. Bitcoin also built bases near the lower bands at levels under the 1.0 MVRV line. The alignment between MVRV swings and realized price bands formed a consistent pattern across cycles.
The current reading shows the MVRV line near red levels at the lower half of the chart. That suggests short-term holders hold reduced profit relative to past spikes. The price sitting near the lower bands raises a key question for market watchers: Will Bitcoin repeat the earlier rebounds that formed at similar STH support zones?
The charts combine MVRV movement and realized price to map clear patterns. Each cycle shows repeated responses to the same band structures. These elements create a detailed framework for understanding price behavior across multiple market stages.
