Bitcoin’s 2024 Cycle Mirrors Past Halvings as Price Climbs to $87K
The new chart of Crypto Rover has resurrected the old debate over the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin. He provided a log-scale plot of the 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 halving periods. The chart indicates that the existing 2024- 2028 cycle is moving in nearly similar ways as the past cycles. The time and trend slope of the trendline are similar with previous bull periods. His post rapidly became viral since it disputes the notion that Bitcoin has shed off the old ways. The theory is disregarded by critics as old fashioned, yet the price action is telling us the opposite.
Bitcoin Holds Strong at $87K
As of November 26, 2025 Bitcoin is trading at approximately $87,300. The price is up almost 120 percent since the bottom of the halve. Such gradual growth resembles the first years of other cycles, when Bitcoin dropped following the halving and then increased. This has boosted investor confidence. Traders refer to also increased lows and constrained supply as the major forces. The fact that this cycle is consistent with previous ones contributes to the assumption that Bitcoin remains to have certain predictable stages. Most commentators believe that bigger shifts will take place in the future in case the trend persists.
Trends in History
Bitcoin halvings are estimated to happen after every 210,000 blocks, and mining is cut by 50 percent. The supply shock caused by each halving is historically long. Bitcoin gained on average 4x following its halvings in the past cycles in a period of 12 to 18 months. The market moves through cycles, a pre-halving run, a sharp correction, a consolidation and a powerful breakout. The chart by Rover serves to emphasis the fact that the ongoing cycle is repeating this rhythm. The merging till mid 2025 is similar to the same neutral zone in 2016 and 2020. This is construed as an indication by investors that a big breakout might still come about.
Cynics Warn of the Mutable Times in the Market
The 4-year cycle is not considered to be valid by all people. Critics claim that the Bitcoin now trades in a more complicated environment. The institutional funds, ETF flows and regulatory control, have different impact on price compared to the early cycles. They assert that increasing liquidity dilutes the halvings. Macroeconomic instability and government policies also come out as an unpredictable factor by them. These arguments are a tense addition to the argument. Even the chart structure still corresponds to previous cycles despite new variables. The price still acts as though the model has not broken.
The Existing Trend is influenced by Macro Forces
The 2024 cycle is under special pressure. The sustained demand is produced by ETF flows by major issuers. The risk appetite is affected by monetary policy changes. Liquidity and investor behavior is influenced by geopolitical events. The use of these factors notwithstanding, Bitcoin has been on its upward trend. The market appears to be shock resistant. Analysts attribute this strength to the parallels with previous cycles. It is an indication that the market narrative of Bitcoin remains controlled by its long-term supply mechanisms.
Implication in the Majority of the Months to Come
According to the trends followed by the 2024 cycle, Bitcoin might experience the most powerful period in the future. The past halving cycles exhibited a high rate of acceleration a few months (between 12 and 16 months) after the event. That schedule has the next possible breakout time frame as late 2025 to mid-2026. The traders are monitoring the resistance at levels of around 95K and 100K. There is a noticeable break above these levels that may verify a bigger trend. Although there is doubt, the existing structure holds a long term bullish opinion.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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