Strong Dollar Meets Strong Bitcoin

While bitcoin briefly rises above $86,000, a dissonance persists: the US dollar remains strong. This strength, usually unfavorable to risky assets, has not hindered BTC’s upward momentum. Is it a real sign of recovery or a mere technical rebound masking underlying weaknesses?

Bitcoin rebound : an unexpected support from the dollar ?

Bitcoin started the week on a bullish note, rising back above $86,000 after a sharp drop on Friday to $80,600, its lowest level since April.

This rebound occurs in a particular macroeconomic context, as data published on November 20 regarding employment in the United States surprised markets, which reacted quickly both in traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies.

Here are the factual elements triggering this recovery :

• The non-farm payroll report (NFP) showed 119,000 job creations against 53,000 expected, a figure twice the forecast ;

• This performance helped push the Dollar Index (DXY) above 100, reaching a six-month high ;

• Despite this dollar strength, usually a negative signal for risky assets, BTC bounced strongly ;

• The New York Fed president, John Williams, nonetheless introduced a more accommodative note, stating that “the weakness in the labor market is today a greater risk than inflation”.

Another factor supporting market sentiment concerns monetary policy expectations. Williams’ speech altered investors’ expectations. According to CME Group, the probability of a 0.25 % rate cut in December jumped to 78.9 % , up from 44 % a week before.

This change in perception briefly favored risky assets, including bitcoin. However, dissenting voices persist within the Fed. Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, indicated she remains undecided on upcoming decisions, illustrating internal tensions over the monetary schedule.

A deceptive rally? Technical signals of a bullish trap

While bitcoin’s rise temporarily improved market sentiment, some analysts warn against a bullish illusion fueled by the relative weakness of the dollar rather than a recovery based on solid fundamentals.

Among them, Tony Severino, a technical analyst, believes the last BTC peak reached in October against the dollar could correspond to a “B-wave rally” in an Elliott corrective sequence.

To support his analysis, Severino refers to the BTC/Gold ratio, which shows a downtrend despite the bitcoin rebound against the dollar. This structural underperformance compared to gold would reflect a latent weakness in the BTC market.

According to his projections, this ratio would enter a corrective phase which could last until December or January 2026, consistent with the bitcoin halving cycle. These technical signals therefore suggest that the current rebound could mask a distribution phase, or even precede a more durable trend reversal.

Despite its rebound above $86,000, the bitcoin price remains subject to macroeconomic uncertainties. Amid contradictory data and fragile technical signals, caution prevails among analysts.