Biomarkers Shine, Results Disappoint: Novo's Attempt at Alzheimer's Falls Short

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Biomarkers Shine, Results Disappoint: Novo's Attempt at Alzheimer's Falls Short

Bitget-RWA2025/11/24 13:46

By:Bitget-RWA

- Novo Nordisk's Alzheimer's trials for semaglutide failed to meet primary endpoints, causing a 9% premarket stock drop to a multi-year low. - The $3.8B trial showed no disease progression slowing despite biomarker improvements, with UBS estimating only 10% success probability beforehand. - Market ripple effects included Eli Lilly's 0.5% decline and Biogen's 2.7% rise, highlighting GLP-1 drug competition in neurodegenerative therapies. - This setback compounds Novo's challenges: 50% YTD stock decline, obes

Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares dropped to their lowest point in years on Monday after the Danish pharmaceutical company revealed that its phase 3 studies of semaglutide for Alzheimer's disease did not achieve their main goal. The EVOKE and EVOKE+ studies, which included 3,808 participants in the early stages of Alzheimer's,

failed to show a statistically meaningful reduction in disease progression

compared to placebo, even though there were some positive changes in Alzheimer's-related biomarkers. This news caused Novo's stock to fall by more than 9% in premarket trading,

representing its sharpest single-day drop since July 2021

Biomarkers Shine, Results Disappoint: Novo's Attempt at Alzheimer's Falls Short image 0

This development is a significant setback for

Novo Nordisk

, which had been hoping to expand the use of semaglutide—the key ingredient in its diabetes and weight-loss medications Ozempic and Wegovy—into the profitable Alzheimer's market. Martin Holst Lange, the company’s Chief Scientific Officer,

admitted to the disappointment

, explaining that while semaglutide continues to be effective for diabetes and obesity, it "did not show effectiveness in slowing Alzheimer's disease progression." The trials were widely seen as a risky but potentially rewarding venture,

with UBS having put the chance of success at only 10%

The market’s response was not limited to

Novo

. Eli Lilly’s stock slipped 0.5% before the market opened as

investors reconsidered the outlook for GLP-1 drugs

in the treatment of neurodegenerative disorders. On the other hand, Biogen’s shares climbed 2.7% as the shift in sentiment created new possibilities for its Alzheimer’s therapies

according to market commentators

. Experts pointed out that this failure highlights the difficulties of adapting metabolic drugs for neurological diseases,

with Morgan Stanley’s Thibault Boutherin previously forecasting

a 75% likelihood that the trials would not succeed.

Novo Nordisk’s recent troubles are part of a broader set of challenges. The company, whose shares have dropped more than 50% so far this year, recently

lowered its growth projections for obesity treatments

and is facing stronger competition from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro. The Alzheimer’s trial failure adds to a tough year that has also included changes in leadership, pricing challenges, and a $10 billion offer for obesity-drug maker Metsera

as noted by financial experts

. "This is yet another obstacle in an already tough climate," said Erik Berg-Johansen,

a portfolio manager at Storebrand Asset Management

The company intends to share headline results from the studies at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) conference in December 2025, with comprehensive data expected at the AD/PD 2026 event

according to company representatives

. Although this failure closes off a potential multi-billion-dollar growth path, Novo’s main GLP-1 business remains strong. Still, the outcome has increased doubts about the drug’s broader potential, with Bernstein analysts

previously describing the Alzheimer’s trial

as “a long shot.”

---

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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