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PENGU Token's Latest Price Rally: On-Chain Activity and Technical Drivers

PENGU Token's Latest Price Rally: On-Chain Activity and Technical Drivers

Bitget-RWA2025/11/23 19:32
By:Bitget-RWA

- PENGU Token surged in Q4 2025 amid mixed on-chain flows: $157K inflows vs. $66.6M team wallet outflows. - Whale accumulation ($273K) and bullish MACD/OBV contrasted bearish RSI and undefined NVT metrics. - Memecoin sector rally (236% Q3 volume) fueled speculation, but PENGU faces regulatory risks under GENIUS Act/MiCA. - Price volatility ($0.0316 peak) highlights fragile support levels and uncertain valuation without NVT benchmarks. - Structural risks include USDT dependency, rising short interest, and s

The Token, which is integral to the ecosystem, has seen a significant price increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, fueled by a complex mix of blockchain activity and technical signals. Although the token’s future remains uncertain, a detailed look at wallet transactions, exchange movements, and overall market sentiment uncovers both optimistic and pessimistic trends that investors need to consider.

On-Chain Activity: Contradictory Signs of Liquidity and Caution

Recent blockchain data reveals a split in PENGU’s market behavior. In Q4 2025, $157,000 in new investments came from experienced market participants, with $103,000 from traders seeking quick profits, indicating a surge in short-term demand

. Yet, this positive sentiment was offset by major withdrawals: 2 billion tokens (valued at $66.6 million) were moved from wallets controlled by the team to exchanges over the past month, hinting at a bearish perspective . Additionally, a single-day transfer of 206.9 million tokens ($8.91 million) to centralized exchanges highlights negative sentiment in the derivatives market .

Large holders, or whales, have also influenced the market. Whales acquired $273,000 worth of PENGU, which could help establish a price floor and signal strategic moves ahead of a potential rally

. However, during the same timeframe, outflows from exchanges reached $9.4 million, while new inflows totaled $1.8 million, showing a cautious optimism . This contrast between whale buying and team wallet outflows points to a struggle between providing liquidity and prevailing bearish attitudes.

Technical Drivers: Mixed Signals and Valuation Uncertainty

From a technical analysis standpoint, PENGU’s price movement in late 2025 has shown conflicting indicators. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shifted into positive territory, and On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been rising since November 4, 2025, pointing to increased buying activity

. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.705 suggested downward pressure . This clash between volume-based optimism and momentum-based pessimism makes the technical outlook more complex.

An important gap in the analysis is the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which has not been established for PENGU in Q3–Q4 2025

. This ratio is vital for determining if the token is overpriced or undervalued, especially given its volatility—PENGU hit $0.0316 in Q4 2025 . Without a clear NVT reference, investors lack a solid basis for judging the token’s underlying value.

Wider Market Landscape: Sector Boom and Speculative Forces

PENGU’s rally coincides with a broader memecoin sector upswing, which recorded $233.9 billion in trading volume in Q3 2025, representing a 236.1% jump from the previous quarter

. This expansion is fueled by retail investor excitement, automated trading, and speculative bets, especially as the market anticipates ETF-related news. Experts suggest that if PENGU reaches a market cap similar to PEPE, its price could climb by 119% . Still, these forecasts are highly speculative and depend on changes in regulation and market mood.

Risks and Unknowns: Regulatory and Market Structure Issues

Despite positive technicals and whale accumulation, PENGU is exposed to structural risks. Increasing short positions and weak support levels, like the $0.01454 mark, present immediate challenges

. Moreover, the token’s reliance on USDT and its vulnerability to shifting regulations—such as the U.S. GENIUS Act and the EU’s MiCA—bring long-term uncertainty . These elements could heighten volatility and discourage institutional involvement.

Summary: High Risk, High Potential Reward

PENGU’s recent price jump is the result of volatile on-chain liquidity, large holder accumulation, and widespread speculative activity. While technical tools like MACD and OBV point to possible upward movement, warning signs from team wallet outflows and the lack of a defined NVT ratio highlight considerable dangers. Investors should proceed with caution, weighing the memecoin sector’s momentum against PENGU’s structural weaknesses. As the token moves through Q4 2025, keeping a close eye on blockchain flows and regulatory changes will be essential for evaluating its long-term prospects.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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