Internet Computer's Latest Rally: Will the Momentum Last or Is It Just a Temporary Spike?

The (ICP) witnessed a significant price rally in the latter part of 2025, driven by increased institutional interest, technological enhancements, and heightened speculative activity. Yet, beneath this bullish trend, a closer look at on-chain indicators reveals complexities that cast doubt on the rally’s long-term viability. This review explores the main factors behind ICP’s recent surge, scrutinizes the reliability of published statistics, and considers whether the project’s underlying fundamentals justify its current market value.

Institutional Drivers and Technical Progress: Building Blocks for Expansion

The Internet Computer’s strong performance in Q3 2025 is largely attributed to key alliances and infrastructure improvements.

, partnerships with Azure and Google Cloud have boosted both compatibility and scalability, overcoming major hurdles for enterprise integration. At the same time, advancements such as Fission and Stellarator have increased computational power and data access speeds by 50%, helping emerge as a strong decentralized competitor to conventional cloud services .

The rollout of Caffeine AI, Dfinity’s artificial intelligence-based infrastructure,

by drawing more than 2,000 developers into the ecosystem. This innovation, together with Chain Fusion—which facilitates cross-chain operations with , , and Solana—has broadened ICP’s role in DeFi and business solutions . Institutional trust is also evident in the Network Nervous System (NNS) and the Active Liquid Democracy framework, which have simplified governance and enabled swift protocol enhancements .

On-Chain Data and Reporting Gaps: Contrasting Perspectives

Despite these positive developments, ICP’s on-chain data presents a mixed picture. The Total Value Locked (TVL) is a notable example. Bitget cited a TVL of $237 billion for Q3 2025

, a number that sharply diverges from DeFiLlama and CoinGecko’s independently confirmed TVL of $1.14 billion . Such a gap raises doubts about the accuracy of reported figures and the possibility of exaggerated claims. While the $1.14 billion TVL marks a 22.5% increase over the quarter , the $237 billion figure lacks external verification, making its authenticity questionable .

Transaction data also shows inconsistencies. Some sources report a 131% jump in trading activity attributed to Caffeine AI and speculative trading

, while others observe a 15% rise in DeFi transactions . On November 10, 2025, ICP’s daily trading volume hit $1.14 billion, the highest since December 2023 , indicating a temporary boost in liquidity. However, the number of active wallets remains unconfirmed, as the reported 1.2 million active addresses lack independent verification .

Falling DApp Engagement: A Signal for Ecosystem Development

Arguably the most troubling statistic is the 22.4% decrease in DApp engagement during Q3 2025

. This mismatch between TVL growth and user participation points to a significant shortfall in ecosystem maturity. While institutional deals and technical progress have strengthened the infrastructure, they have yet to drive lasting DApp usage. This gap implies that ICP’s real-world value for users may still be unproven, with much of the activity fueled by speculation rather than practical application .

On a brighter note, validator recruitment trends are encouraging. The onboarding of 2,000 new developers and growing institutional interest in AI-based infrastructure have enhanced the network’s security and scalability

. Still, the persistent lack of DApp growth suggests these technical improvements have not yet translated into broader user adoption.

Market Mood and Speculative Forces

ICP’s price rally has also been propelled by speculative trading. Speculation-driven trading volumes soared by 261% in Q3 2025

, highlighting strong market enthusiasm but also raising doubts about whether this reflects true demand or short-lived profit-seeking. The 30% price jump in late 2025 mirrors broader trends in the crypto sector, where Ethereum and certain altcoins outperformed Bitcoin. Nonetheless, ICP’s dependence on speculative capital rather than organic user growth could expose it to sharp corrections.

Opportunity or Risk? Weighing the Prospects

For those considering investment, the central issue is whether ICP’s recent momentum signals a lasting uptrend or a temporary spike. The platform’s institutional alliances, technical advancements, and AI integration offer a solid base for future expansion. However, the absence of independent TVL verification, declining DApp engagement, and speculative trading patterns introduce notable uncertainties.

Investors who are confident in ICP’s vision of a decentralized, AI-driven cloud may see a promising entry point. Its ability to interact with major blockchains and deliver enterprise-level scalability could help it gain ground in the evolving DeFi and Web3 arenas. Nevertheless, prudence is advised until the ecosystem demonstrates consistent user activity and resolves current data inconsistencies.

Summary

The Internet Computer’s Q3 2025 rally is the result of a potent mix of institutional support, technological progress, and speculative energy. While its infrastructure improvements and partnerships are impressive, the disconnect between TVL and DApp usage, along with unverified data, highlights the importance of careful evaluation. Investors should keep an eye on validator growth, DApp adoption trends, and third-party data validation to determine whether ICP’s upward trajectory is sustainable or likely to reverse.