Bitcoin News Update: Uncertainty from Fed's Data and Divided Policies Keeps Rate Cut Decision Unresolved
- Fed's December 2025 rate-cut odds drop to 44% as inflation risks and policy divisions delay easing, per CME data. - Persistent 3% year-on-year inflation and delayed economic reports create "data fog," forcing policymakers to rely on outdated metrics. - Stock and crypto markets react: S&P 500 faces pressure, Bitcoin dips below $90,000 amid prolonged tight monetary policy. - Fed's internal factions clash over inflation control vs. employment support, with 2026 likely starting point for slower easing cycle.
Uncertainty has increased around the Federal Reserve’s plans for a rate cut in December 2025, as market odds now suggest a 53% chance that rates will remain unchanged at this crucial meeting,
The rising likelihood of no rate cut is a sharp turnaround from earlier projections, which mostly anticipated a 25 basis point reduction. According to Polymarket data cited by financial commentator @KobeissiLetter, concerns about inflation—shown by annual price increases climbing back to 3%—have led traders to prefer keeping rates steady rather than easing policy.
Adding to the confusion, the government shutdown has delayed key economic reports, leaving Fed officials in a “data fog.”
The consequences for financial markets are significant. In the stock market, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown mixed results, with growth shares under pressure as hopes for rate cuts fade. Likewise,
Cryptocurrency markets are also responding to broader economic developments. The sharp drop in expectations for a December rate cut has brought attention to BTC/USD short positions,
Looking forward, the September nonfarm payrolls report—scheduled for November 20—will be a key data release. Although its late arrival limits its immediate influence on policy, it could still sway market sentiment ahead of the Fed’s December meeting.
As the Fed navigates a challenging economic environment, investors remain cautious. With inflation still above the 2% target and policy disagreements unresolved,
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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