2026 Energy Forecast: Renewable Energy Grows, Emissions Steady as AI Expands

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2026 Energy Forecast: Renewable Energy Grows, Emissions Steady as AI Expands

Bitget-RWA2025/11/17 14:46

By:Bitget-RWA

- U.S. wholesale electricity prices projected to rise 8.5% in 2026 due to AI/data center demand surging in Texas. - Renewables to reach 26% of U.S. generation in 2026, but CO₂ emissions remain flat at 4.8 billion metric tons. - Tech giants invest $40B+ in AI infrastructure, driving innovations like Airsys' zero-water cooling systems and MiTAC's liquid-cooled clusters. - Natural gas maintains 40% generation share despite $4.00/MMBtu price surge, while oil prices fall to $55/barrel amid stable production. -

By 2026, the U.S. energy sector is poised for major changes, with electricity prices climbing due to heightened demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

anticipates an 8.5% rise in wholesale electricity prices

to reach $51 per megawatt-hour in 2026, compared to $47/MWh in 2025. This increase is largely driven by the West South Central area, especially Texas, where

power usage by data centers and crypto mining

is growing swiftly.

Renewable sources are projected to generate a record 26% of the nation’s electricity in 2026, with nuclear energy making up 18%,

bringing the share of carbon-free power to 44%

overall. Despite this, carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are expected to remain relatively stable,

with a slight decrease to 4.8 billion

metric tons from 4.9 billion in 2025. The EIA further highlights that natural gas will continue to supply 40% of the country’s electricity, surpassing both coal and nuclear

as stated in EIA press releases

Technology firms are ramping up infrastructure spending to address AI-related energy needs. Google revealed plans for a $40 billion data center expansion in Texas through 2027, while

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted significant investments

in AI computing infrastructure

according to Bloomberg

. Meta’s facility in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin, is part of a larger initiative to secure “top-tier compute” for AI development, with

Zuckerberg noting the possibility of overcapacity

but suggesting options such as leasing out surplus resources.

The swift expansion of AI infrastructure is driving advancements in cooling technology.

Airsys Cooling Technologies introduced PowerOne

, a modular cooling solution built to manage high-density AI power loads, offering zero water usage efficiency (WUE) and leading power compute effectiveness (PCE). Likewise,

MiTAC Computing presented liquid-cooled AI clusters

at SC 2025, collaborating with AMD and

NVIDIA

to enhance energy efficiency for large-scale data centers.

Interest in geothermal energy is also on the rise.

Datavault AI landed an $8 million agreement for tokenization services

with Triton Geothermal, supporting a $125 million digital token initiative for geothermal projects. At the same time,

TransAlta’s $95 million purchase

of a 310-MW natural gas asset portfolio in Ontario underscores the ongoing dependence on fossil fuels during the energy transition.

Natural gas providers are adjusting to evolving market conditions.

TotalEnergies took a 50% stake in a flexible power generation portfolio

in Europe, aiming to blend gas with renewable sources.

Stifel increased its price target

for Natural Gas Services Group to $39, citing robust third-quarter performance and positive 2026 projections.

The EIA’s November Short-Term Energy Outlook also

predicts a 16% jump in natural gas prices

to $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, fueled by higher winter heating needs and expanding LNG exports. In contrast, oil prices are forecast to fall to $55 per barrel,

with U.S. output leveling off at 13.6 million barrels

daily.

Changes in regulations are also impacting the clean energy industry.

New Jersey Resources is encountering obstacles

as the Trump administration reduces support for renewables,

cutting EIA’s 2025–2030 renewable forecasts

by 45%. Meanwhile,

GK Energy’s Q2 FY26 report revealed

a 36% year-over-year profit increase, attributed to solar pump installations under India’s PM-KUSUM program.

As the U.S. seeks to balance the energy needs of AI with environmental objectives, the evolving mix of renewables, natural gas, and advanced cooling technologies will shape the industry’s direction in 2026.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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