Robinhood’s Bold Move: Expanding Prediction Markets via Collaborations Instead of Building Platforms

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) has established itself as a leading force in the booming prediction markets industry, now generating $100 million in annualized revenue from this segment—outpacing forecasts and marking a significant evolution in its business model. During the Q3 2025 earnings call, CEO Vlad Tenev highlighted the remarkable momentum in this area, pointing out that October’s prediction market income alone surpassed the entire previous quarter. Despite the promising outlook, Tenev made it clear that

does not intend to launch its own prediction market platform in the near future, instead choosing to collaborate with established exchanges such as Kalshi, .

This choice to avoid building a proprietary platform demonstrates Robinhood’s strategy of leveraging its 26 million users to attract third-party services. The company currently earns a share from every prediction market transaction made through its app, a profitable approach that requires minimal in-house development. Tenev suggested that the sector is on the verge of heightened competition, with many new exchanges expected to enter the field, making direct investment in an exclusive platform less attractive, Fortune noted. Steve Quirk, Robinhood’s Head of Brokerage, agreed, saying the current partnerships with Kalshi and competitors like Polymarket are “working well” for the company.

Robinhood’s prediction markets, which enable users to wager on outcomes from political races to sporting events, have become a major engine for growth. This success follows regulatory changes in 2024 that removed long-standing barriers to such markets in the U.S. In October 2025, the company reported 2.5 billion prediction market contracts,

, highlighting the widespread popularity of this category. The surge has been especially driven by sports betting, which was recently introduced on the platform as legal restrictions eased, Fortune reported.

The prediction markets division is now among Robinhood’s most rapidly expanding sources of revenue, joining crypto trading and enhanced banking offerings as central elements of its diversification efforts. The Q3 financials showcased overall robust performance: revenue for the third quarter hit $1.19 billion, beating Wall Street expectations, while Q2 2025 net income doubled to $386 million,

. Robinhood’s market value has since climbed to $130 billion, buoyed by its addition to the S&P 500 index in September 2025, .

Market analysts remain cautiously upbeat. Although Zacks Research lowered its rating to “Hold” in November due to a high price-to-book ratio of 15.39x, the consensus among 22 analysts includes 13 “Buy” recommendations and an average price target of $142.26, Futunn reported. Compass Point increased its target to $161, citing the potential for prediction markets to deliver over $200 million in yearly revenue, Futunn added. However, technical experts caution that Robinhood shares may be overbought, with the stock trading near $147—just below its 52-week peak of $153.86,

.

Robinhood’s strategy for prediction markets fits within its broader goal of expanding its financial services ecosystem. The company now provides savings accounts, debit cards, and instant crypto withdrawals, aiming to become a comprehensive fintech destination. Tenev stressed the significance of maintaining “relentless product velocity,” with Q3 featuring swift launches of new features, PYMNTS reported. Nonetheless, the company continues to face hurdles, including regulatory oversight across its varied offerings and competition from both established banks and emerging fintech firms.

As the prediction markets industry evolves, Robinhood’s role as a facilitator rather than a direct competitor could prove to be a key advantage. By prioritizing scale and user engagement, the company seeks to capture a growing market segment without diverting focus from its main business—a strategy that, if maintained, could further reinforce its leadership position.