Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces $115K Turning Point: Surge Ahead or Decline?

Bitcoin's upward drive appears to be stalling as its price remains confined within a tight band, leaving experts split on whether the $115,000 threshold will ignite a fresh surge or signal further losses. Recent figures point to declining trading activity and conflicting technical indicators, highlighting the market's indecision ahead of significant macroeconomic events, according to

.

The price zone between $111,000 and $117,000 has turned into a fierce contest between bulls and bears, with Glassnode data revealing strong buying interest near $111,000 and notable selling around $117,000. This ongoing struggle has kept

hovering close to $112,600 in late October, and the appearance of smaller candlesticks suggests traders are waiting for new market-moving events. CoinDesk Research analysts observe that a move above $116,000 could pave the way toward $119,000–$120,000, while slipping below $112,500 could mean another test of the $111,000 support area.

At the same time, technical experts at

believe Bitcoin is currently squeezed between its 200-day ($109,000) and 100-day ($114,000) moving averages, with the $114K–$116K range serving as a significant resistance area. They suggest that a decisive move above $116,000 could indicate renewed interest from institutional investors, while a drop below $109K might send the price down to the $102K–$104K "institutional demand zone."

's AI-based analysis takes a more optimistic stance, forecasting a rebound toward $115,000 as Bitcoin finds footing at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a level that has historically sparked rallies. The firm points to a recurring pattern of two to three months of sideways movement before major price increases, implying another consolidation period could precede a breakout. However, this positive view contrasts with the caution from , which highlights the risk of a second monthly TBT Bearish Divergence—a pattern often linked to market peaks or sharp corrections.

Sentiment among investors has shifted from deep fear to a more neutral stance, with the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index climbing to 51 from 40 earlier in October, according to

. This follows a 20-point recovery since mid-October, when geopolitical tensions and forced liquidations drove the index to its lowest point in two months. Glassnode's statistics back up this change, showing that selling pressure has leveled off and net open interest is stabilizing, which could signal a turnaround.

Nonetheless, bearish sentiment still exerts influence. Analysts at Blockhead.co warn that if Bitcoin fails to stay above $115,500, it could prompt a negative reaction, as both futures and spot trading volumes point to short-term fragility. Likewise, Kitco's review of Bitcoin's dominance and altcoin performance indicates a defensive approach across the digital asset market, with

and other smaller cryptocurrencies also facing challenges in gaining momentum.

Broader economic factors add further complexity. Although the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest rate reduction has increased liquidity, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's firm tone has tempered bullish expectations. In addition, ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and stock market fluctuations continue to impact risk assets like Bitcoin.

As the market contends with these various influences, traders are closely monitoring October's monthly close for signs of a bearish divergence, which could foreshadow a larger correction. For now, Bitcoin's trajectory depends on whether institutional investors step in to support crucial price levels or if diminishing momentum leads to a deeper downturn.