On the morning of October 30th, East 8th District time, President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Trump in Busan, South Korea. This was the first face-to-face exchange between the two leaders since the 2019 Osaka G20 Summit, and the meeting lasted about 100 minutes.
During the meeting, the two sides conducted in-depth exchanges on multiple topics, including economic and trade cooperation and global governance, reaching several preliminary consensuses. After the meeting, President Trump stated: "This meeting was outstanding, and we reached important agreements." President Xi emphasized that China-U.S. relations should be guided by partnership and friendship, jointly steering the overall situation.
This meeting was held under the framework of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, against the backdrop of ongoing China-U.S. trade frictions affecting global supply chains. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that trade tensions have led to a downward revision of global economic growth expectations for 2025 to 3.2%.
Main Content of the Meeting: Economic and Trade Consensus and Cooperation Framework
The meeting focused on the stability of economic and trade relations and global cooperation. The economic and trade teams of both sides had previously held preliminary consultations in Malaysia, forming a framework opinion. This leaders' meeting further confirmed the consensus and emphasized the constructive role of the dialogue mechanism.
● President Xi pointed out: "China-U.S. economic and trade relations should serve as ballast and a propeller, not stumbling blocks."
● President Trump responded: "As the largest trading partners, China and the U.S. can jointly drive world economic growth."
● Core of the economic and trade consensus: Both sides agreed to implement a 'one-year trade truce' framework, aiming to ease tariff barriers and stabilize supply chains.
This framework does not involve geopolitically sensitive topics and focuses on specific areas of cooperation. Follow-up mechanisms:
● The economic and trade teams will soon refine the details of the agreement, following the principles of equality, respect, and reciprocity, narrowing the list of issues and expanding areas of cooperation. A preliminary implementation report is expected to be submitted before the end of November.
● On the global governance level: The two leaders agreed to deepen cooperation in areas such as combating fentanyl, AI governance, and infectious disease prevention and control. President Xi stated: "China and the U.S. can work together to accomplish great things that benefit the world." President Trump added: "Next year, China and the U.S. will respectively host the APEC and G20 summits, supporting each other to achieve positive outcomes."
Detailed Analysis of the Agreement: Pragmatic Results in Multiple Fields
After the meeting, both sides announced a preliminary agreement framework covering areas such as tariff adjustments, agricultural trade, rare earth supply, and drug control. These measures aim to address domestic concerns and provide certainty for global markets. The following table summarizes the main content of the agreement, background, and expected impact:
Agreement Area | Specific Content | Background and Expected Impact |
Tariff Adjustment | The U.S. will reduce the average tariff on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%; tariffs on fentanyl-related products will be reduced from 20% to 10%. | At the peak of the trade war, U.S. tariffs on China reached 25%, pushing up U.S. inflation by 1.2 percentage points (Federal Reserve Q3 report, October 2025). This move is expected to save U.S. consumers about $50 billion in spending. |
Agricultural Trade | China will resume large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products, with the purchase volume in the first half of the year having dropped by more than 50% from the peak. | In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China amounted to only $12 billion. The agreement may restore 30% of the market share, stabilizing the agricultural economy in the U.S. Midwest. |
Rare Earth Export | China agrees to postpone or lift restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, ensuring stable supply to the U.S. for a one-year commitment. | China accounts for over 80% of global rare earth production. President Trump called this a "major breakthrough," which will help ease supply chain pressures for electric vehicles and chips (Politico, October 30, 2025). |
Fentanyl Cooperation | China will strengthen the crackdown on illegal export and trafficking of fentanyl precursor chemicals, with the U.S. providing technical support. | There are over 100,000 fentanyl-related deaths in the U.S. each year. Cooperation is expected to halve the volume of illegal inflows. |
Market Reaction and Macroeconomic Impact: Recovery Potential Amid Short-term Volatility
● Commodity Market Dynamics: Gold prices fell as geopolitical risk premiums declined, with spot prices at $3,965/oz. The Brent crude oil futures front curve fell by 1.1% to $82/barrel, reflecting improved expectations for energy supply.
● Cryptocurrency Volatility: Bitcoin prices fell from $113,000 to $108,000 in the hour before the meeting. After the details of the agreement were disclosed, Bitcoin made a V-shaped rebound, regaining the $111,000 mark, and Ethereum rose by 1%.
● Macroeconomic Data Support: China's economic growth rate reached 5.2% in the first three quarters, and the agreement may further boost global goods trade by 4%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond remained stable at 4.0%, and positive signals were also seen in the European economy. The Bank of Japan maintained its policy unchanged but hinted at a possible rate hike in December.
Summary of Views: Consensus Dominates, Cautious Optimism Remains
The meeting sparked widespread discussion in the international community, with both the White House and Chinese officials expressing positive evaluations.
● President Trump's team said: "The results are remarkable and will help the U.S. economy and national security."
● Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said: "The dialogue mechanism will open up broad space for cooperation."
● Wall Street and think tank views are divided. Goldman Sachs analyst Hao Zhou pointed out: "The meeting is generally positive, but technological competition needs continued attention." Zaye Capital Chief Investment Officer Naeem Aslam added: "The market is skeptical about the substantive terms, and short-term volatility is expected."
KOL/Source | Macroeconomic View | Crypto Market View |
@SelfSuccessSaga | Trade easing releases a wave of liquidity, driving global growth by 0.5-1%; China-U.S. complementarity increases, USD exchange rate becomes sensitive. | The meeting reverses risk sentiment, Bitcoin targets $115,000+; altseason revival, DeFi liquidity injection. |
@earnwithrk | End-of-trade-war risks decrease, Fed rate cut probability rises; emerging markets benefit, China beta stocks lead gains. | Flash crash cleans out leverage followed by V-shaped rebound, super bull market starts; BTC/ETH rise across the board, post-liquidation opportunities outweigh risks. |
@cryptoradar92 | Tactical trading provides breathing room, global GDP expectations revised up; but structural issues remain unresolved, inflation pressure eases. | One-year agreement unlocks super bull market, rebound after whale manipulation; BTC target $125,000, risk assets bullish. |
@EyeOnChain | Diplomatic signals downgrade geopolitical risk, energy/oil premiums fall; defensive assets strengthen slightly. | Lack of statement triggers uncertain pricing, volatility remains high; ETH/SOL under pressure, but rebound after agreement details are clarified. |
Binance Square | The summit reshapes China-U.S. relations, liquidity release boosts risk assets; 70% probability of a rate cut in December. | Trade optimism pushes up Bitcoin, sustaining $116,000-$125,000; crypto stocks rise in tandem. |
Steady Progress Requires Vigilance Against Hidden Dangers
● Economic Uncertainty: Insufficient global demand drags on recovery, IMF maintains 2025 growth forecast at 3.2%. The de-dollarization trend in the crypto market may intensify volatility.
● Looking ahead to 2026: China will host the APEC summit, and the U.S. will host the G20, with both sides pledging mutual support. Deloitte predicts broad space for China-U.S. cooperation, but challenges remain in addressing weak demand.
