At 20:30 on October 24th, East 8th District time, the global market turned its attention to the U.S. Department of Labor's release of the September CPI data. This lone economic indicator, released under the shadow of a government shutdown, could become the decisive factor in bitcoin's short-term trend.
The U.S. will announce the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is not only the last key inflation report before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on October 30th, but also the first major economic indicator released since the U.S. government shutdown.
In this "data vacuum" environment, this report has become the only reliable basis for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess the current state of the economy.
I. Special Background: The "Lone" Report in a Data Desert
The environment for this CPI release is rare in recent years and has several unusual characteristics.
● This is the first time since January 2018 that CPI data has been released on a Friday, breaking market convention. Even more unusually, this report is being released against the backdrop of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown.
Due to the shutdown, other key economic indicators, including the non-farm payroll report and retail sales data, have been suspended. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics specially recalled some employees to process this inflation report, but this "patchwork" operation has raised market concerns about the accuracy of the data.
● In this "economic data vacuum," tonight's CPI data naturally becomes the only guidance for the market and the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve officials are essentially "flying blind," lacking sufficient economic indicators to fully assess the economic situation, further amplifying the importance of this CPI data.
II. Market Expectations: Mild Inflation Uptick and Rate Cut Game
According to general market expectations, the U.S. September CPI year-on-year is expected to rise from 2.9% in August to 3.1%. Economists at Wells Fargo share the same expectation, believing that inflation remains within a range consistent with "gradual disinflation."
● The core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to remain at a stable level of 3.1%, the same as in July and August. This data shows that while overall inflation fluctuates, underlying price pressures remain stubborn.
● However, there are also different voices in the market. According to independent macroeconomic data provider Truflation in the crypto field, the CPI could be as low as 2.28%, far below market consensus. This analytical divergence increases the uncertainty of tonight's data.
● Despite the uncertainty in inflation, the futures market shows remarkable confidence in the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. The market currently prices the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the October 30th meeting as high as 98.4%.
III. Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve's Difficult Choice
Tomorrow night's CPI data will directly affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the end of the month. Behind this report lies the complex policy balancing challenge faced by the Fed.
● If the CPI data is significantly lower than expected, it may reinforce the trend of slowing inflation. This would provide the Federal Reserve with a reason to consider a more aggressive rate cut (such as 50 basis points) to address a potentially weakening job market.
"The Federal Reserve tends to focus on the cumulative direction of inflation rather than a single data point," said Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group. This view suggests that even if a single month's data is lower, it may not immediately change the policy path.
● If the CPI data is higher than expected, it will exacerbate the Federal Reserve's internal decision-making dilemma. On the one hand, sticky inflation worries officials; on the other hand, without employment data as evidence, they must also be wary of economic downturn and labor market weakness risks.
IV. Crypto Impact: Bitcoin Faces a Key Test
For the cryptocurrency market, especially bitcoin, tonight's CPI data will be a critical "stress test."
Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at digital asset financial services company HashKey Group, pointed out: "Bitcoin and the entire market are expected to react moderately to this week's major macro events."
Specifically, the possible trends for bitcoin are as follows:
● If CPI is below expectations: it may push bitcoin towards the $117,000-$120,000 range. If the CPI data is relatively mild, it will re-anchor the "soft landing" trading logic for the economy and, with improved liquidity expectations, strengthen bitcoin's upward tendency.
● If CPI is above expectations: bitcoin may test the key psychological support level of $100,000.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market appears more fragile than the traditional stock market. Bitcoin's trading price is about 11% lower than its all-time high of $102,000 set on October 11th.
V. Capital Flows: ETF Inflows and Institutional Sentiment
On the eve of the CPI data release, bitcoin ETF capital flows show complex signals, revealing the contradictory psychology of institutional investors.
● On October 22, 2025, BlackRock's U.S. spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded a net inflow of $210.9 million. This data shows that despite market uncertainty, institutional demand remains resilient.
● Since October, bitcoin ETFs have seen a total net outflow of $536.4 million, triggering a roughly 13% drop in bitcoin prices.
This capital outflow coincides with increased market volatility. Bitcoin ETF outflows have now become a leading indicator, with extreme inflows/outflows reflecting overbought/oversold conditions and shifts in macroeconomic sentiment.
Bitunix analyst Dean Chen suggests: "Traders should pay attention to real-time changes in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar after the data release: simultaneous increases in both will put pressure on bitcoin, while declines may reignite risk appetite."
VI. Expert Views: Market Sentiment and Risk Balance
On the eve of the CPI data release, crypto market sentiment has already turned cautious.
● Derek Lim, Head of Research at crypto market maker Caladan, pointed out that investors are currently in a defensive posture and are hedging against potential risks.
● "If U.S. inflation meets expectations and only deviates slightly, the most likely result is a muted market reaction," said Derek Lim, echoing Sun's assessment.
● Dean Chen added: "In this environment, volatility remains high, and the sustainability of ETF inflows will determine whether bitcoin can regain momentum after the data release."
● Kautious Data analysts pointed out that in the absence of other macroeconomic data, the influence of CPI is amplified.
"Weaker macro signals may be a near-term bullish setup for the crypto narrative, while also adding tail risk to the broader market."
