glassnode: After a record-high options expiration, bitcoin awaits the arrival of the next decisive trend

BlockBeats News, October 2, glassnode published a bitcoin market analysis stating that on-chain dynamics continue to highlight the key role of the short-term holder cost basis, which has provided reliable support since May 2025. The price still faces challenges from the dense supply cluster between $114,000 and $118,000, but the easing distribution among long-term holders and the return of ETF capital indicate that demand is stabilizing. Market sentiment, as measured by RVT and the Fear & Greed Index, suggests the market is in a cooling phase, with the trend shifting towards consolidation rather than capitulation.

In the options market, record expiries have reset positions, and open interest is now re-entering the fourth quarter. Volatility has weakened, skew is moving towards neutral, the curve remains in contango, and the back end is more resilient. Capital flows show moderate upside interest, while dealers' gamma remains roughly balanced, suppressing hedging flows. Overall, these signals indicate that the market is resetting to a more neutral and constructive environment, awaiting the arrival of the next decisive trend.