Central banks set to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset by 2030 as the dollar's dominance wanes

According to Deutsche Bank’s projections,

may be recognized alongside gold as a reserve asset on central bank balance sheets by 2030, signaling a major change in how monetary authorities perceive digital currencies. Detailed in a report from September 2025, this outlook suggests Bitcoin could serve as an additional safeguard against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, complementing gold, while the U.S. dollar continues to dominate global reserves. The bank pointed out that Bitcoin’s evolving market maturity, evidenced by reduced volatility and increased institutional participation, underpins this potential shift.

The report notes that in August 2025, Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility reached record lows even as its price exceeded $123,500, indicating a move away from speculative trading toward a more stable investment category. Institutional interest has grown rapidly, with companies acquiring a total of 463,685 BTC by September 22—almost three times the 164,250 BTC mined in 2025. This imbalance between supply and demand has heightened competition for Bitcoin, especially as central banks look to diversify amid ongoing concerns about the dominance of the dollar and increasing geopolitical divisions.

Deutsche Bank’s outlook is consistent with recent regulatory developments worldwide, such as the EU’s MiCA regulations and changing U.S. policies, which are designed to bring greater transparency to crypto markets. The bank highlighted that clear regulatory guidelines in key markets are essential for Bitcoin’s acceptance as a reserve asset, along with advancements in custody technology and accounting practices. Central banks in countries like the U.S., Brazil, Russia, and Switzerland have already started strategic Bitcoin reserve initiatives, reflecting a growing trend of incorporating digital assets into official reserves.

The report draws comparisons between the adoption of Bitcoin and the historical rise of gold, focusing on their mutual traits of scarcity and limited correlation with mainstream assets. While gold still has a closer relationship with stocks and bonds, Bitcoin’s independence from traditional financial systems makes it a valuable tool for diversification.

referenced statistics showing Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has been just 12% since 2020, and that it has sometimes shown a negative correlation with government bonds, compared to gold’s 14% correlation with equities.

Nonetheless, several obstacles persist. The bank recognized that for Bitcoin to be included in reserves, regulatory certainty, price steadiness, and reliable custody infrastructure are necessary. Lowering volatility, ensuring secure storage, and complying with anti-money laundering (AML) standards are crucial for risk management. Furthermore, geopolitical developments—such as China’s reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings in 2024 and the dollar’s 57% share of global reserves—highlight the importance for central banks to balance innovation with monetary independence.

If Bitcoin is eventually added to official reserves, it could transform how institutions approach investment. Deutsche Bank anticipates that Bitcoin’s function as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation will become more prominent as adoption increases, though it maintains that neither Bitcoin nor gold will supplant the dollar. For investors, the report indicates a rising recognition of Bitcoin as a credible component of the financial landscape, with both central banks and corporations increasingly valuing its strategic importance.

Source: [1] Deutsche Bank Research, "Bitcoin to Join Gold on Central Bank Reserves by 2030" [2] Deutsche Bank Research, "Bitcoin’s Institutional Tsunami" [3] Deutsche Bank Research, "Bitcoin in Central Bank Reserves by 2030"