Matrixport: Bitcoin’s Next Surge Depends on Federal Reserve’s Policy Shift Against Broader Economic Threats

Source: [1] Is

Price Set For Next Rally? - Forbes

[2] Bitcoin steady ahead of Fed's rate decision - economies.com

[3] BREAKING: Fed Cuts Rates by 25 bps — Bitcoin

[4] Did Fed Rate Cut Reveal By Jerome Powell Just Trigger Next …

[5] Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Decision: How a 0.25% Cut Could Reshape

[6] Matrixport outlines new risks that could challenge …

[7] Matrixport shares the greatest risk to Bitcoin’s bull …

[8] Matrixport Warns BTC Momentum Fades on Weak U.S. Data

Matrixport, a crypto analytics company based in Singapore, has identified factors that could ignite Bitcoin’s upcoming bull run, pointing to the Federal Reserve’s latest move towards looser monetary policy and narrowing credit spreads as primary influences. Their research indicates the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate reduction on September 17, 2025, signals a key transition to more accommodative policies, a move that historical patterns show often benefits Bitcoin’s value. This rate cut, the first in 2025, followed ongoing inflation worries and signs of a cooling job market, with Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish comments fueling expectations for continued easing into 2026.

Historical data highlights a strong relationship between easier Fed policy and Bitcoin rallies. In the 2020–2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin leapt from $7,000 to over $60,000 as interest rates hit record lows and quantitative easing intensified. Likewise, the 2019 rate cuts created a generally positive environment for risk assets, though their impact was slower at first. Matrixport observes that today’s narrowing credit spreads—where yields on short- and long-term bonds move closer—suggest more liquidity in the markets, which may further boost Bitcoin’s attractiveness as a high-conviction investment.

The recent Fed rate cut has already caused swift market responses. Before the announcement, Bitcoin gained 0.5% to reach $116,552, while stablecoin deposits into exchanges topped $2 billion, hinting at a shift towards riskier assets. However, soon after the news, the market dropped 0.4%, with $177 million in long positions being liquidated in a single day. Experts say this reflects a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect, where traders had already priced in the expected rate cut.

Matrixport’s projections remain cautious due to broader economic uncertainties. While the Fed’s softer approach is favorable for Bitcoin, threats like persistent inflation and the potential return of tariffs from the Trump era could prompt a more hawkish shift. The firm also highlights emerging technology risks, such as Google’s 105-qubit “Willow” chip, which could eventually undermine Bitcoin’s cryptographic security. Changes in inflation patterns and possible fiscal shifts with a Trump administration may also disrupt the Fed’s current policy path.

Nonetheless, Matrixport maintains a cautiously positive outlook. Their models indicate that the next phase of Bitcoin’s rally depends on the Fed’s continued dovish guidance and ability to manage inflation without harming economic growth. With markets already expecting further rate cuts, Bitcoin’s easiest route seems upward—assuming the macroeconomic environment remains steady.

The Fed’s September rate move has also revived discussions on Bitcoin’s place within diversified investment portfolios. As institutional interest grows—especially with the approval of spot ETFs—Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks has climbed to 0.9, reflecting its growing role among mainstream assets. However, Matrixport warns that Bitcoin still faces significant volatility and regulatory risks, especially in major markets like the U.S. and China.

To sum up, the connection between Fed policy and Bitcoin’s price continues to draw investor attention. While looser monetary policy and tighter credit spreads favor the bulls, Matrixport urges ongoing caution in light of emerging risks. The months ahead will reveal whether the Fed’s easy-money stance can keep driving crypto higher, or if wider economic challenges will take center stage again.