Analyst: The threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points next week is high; a large rate cut would do more harm than good.

Jinse Finance reported that Kieran Williams, Head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets, stated: "The threshold for a 50 basis point rate cut is very high, and it may require a significant downside surprise in core inflation to give doves enough confidence. Considering the stickiness of service prices and the Federal Reserve's tendency to signal gradual moves, a sharp rate cut next week seems unlikely, but the data will influence how aggressively the market prices in the easing path by year-end." Matt Simpson, Senior Market Analyst at City Index, also commented: "I believe that, at present, a 50 basis point rate cut would do more harm than good to market confidence. In addition, the Federal Reserve may want to save face and not fully yield to Trump's wishes." Simpson pointed out, "Market pricing currently reflects expectations of three rate cuts over the next three meetings. The Federal Reserve is in a good position to align with these expectations, or to increase the probability of rate cuts in 2026—without being forced to cut by 50 basis points next week."