Can Solana’s Short-Term Holders Spark the Next Rally?

So far this month, Solana (SOL) has struggled to break free from its muted performance, with price action largely trending sideways. The coin has faced consistent resistance at $213.04, while support has held steady at $200.09. 

Interestingly, amid this lackluster price action, on-chain data points to a quiet buildup of bullish momentum, with the coin’s short-term holders (STHs) leading the charge.

Solana Sentiment Shifts From Capitulation to Cautious Confidence

According to Glassnode, SOL’s HODL Waves, a metric that tracks how long coins have been held, reveals that its short-term holders are becoming increasingly active. 

These investors who have held their coins between one and three months currently control 13.22% of SOL’s circulating supply, increasing their collective holdings by 11% since the beginning of September. 

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Solana HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode

Moreover, SOL’s STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric shows sentiment shifting away from capitulation. At press time, it stands at 0.118, suggesting that these investors are beginning to regain confidence.

Solana STH-NUPL. Source: Glassnode

The STH-NUPL measures the overall unrealized profit or loss of short-term holders, capturing whether this group is in a state of euphoria, optimism, hope, or fear. 

With its current reading at 0.118, the metric places the SOL market sentiment in the delicate zone between hope and fear.

According to Glassnode, this suggests that while STHs have moved out of deep capitulation, their conviction remains tentative, and confidence is returning only gradually. At the same time, investors remain cautious of potential pullbacks.

Accumulation Could Break $213, Selloffs May Sink $200

Generally, price movements are sensitive to shifts in short-term holder accumulation. Therefore, if SOL STHs continue to increase their supply, the added buying pressure could propel the coin’s value, driving it beyond its current resistance at $213.04.

A successful rally above this level could send the coin toward $218.01.

Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if STHs reduce accumulation and resume selloffs, SOL risks plunging below the support at $200.43. In this scenario, the coin’s price could fall to $191.75.