Bitcoin-gold correlation has turned negative for the first time since February 2025, signaling a potential divergence in the safe-haven story: Bitcoin trades around $110k while gold sits near $3,500, suggesting investors may be differentiating digital and precious-metal risk flows ahead of the Fed meeting.
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Negative correlation returned
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Bitcoin consolidates between $107,000–$113,000 as volatility eases.
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Private payrolls, jobless claims and 97.4% Fed cut odds shape market expectations.
Bitcoin-gold correlation falls negative; Bitcoin price consolidates near $110k and markets await Fed cues — read analysis and key takeaways now.
What is the Bitcoin-gold correlation and why does it matter?
Bitcoin-gold correlation measures how BTC and gold prices move relative to each other; a negative reading means they are diverging. This matters because a decoupling can change the narrative on Bitcoin as a safe-haven and affect portfolio allocation between digital and precious-metal assets.
How has the correlation between Bitcoin and gold changed recently?
CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn observed the correlation turned negative for the first time since February 2025. The shift follows Bitcoin trading between $107,000 and $113,000 at September’s start, while spot gold trades slightly above $3,500 after surpassing that level earlier.
Bitcoin rebounded from a Sept. 1 low near $107,250 and reached $112,600 before a modest pullback. At the time of reporting, BTC traded about $110,578, down 0.7% over 24 hours. Gold’s move to multi-year highs suggests investors are splitting safe-haven flows.
Why did Bitcoin decouple from gold now?
Several macro signals likely contributed: slowing private payrolls and rising jobless claims increased speculation about near-term Fed rate easing. Markets now price a 97.4% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting, which can favor risk assets like Bitcoin even while gold rallies on safe-haven demand.
How are labor data and Fed expectations influencing markets?
Private payrolls rose by 54,000 in August, below the Dow Jones consensus of 75,000 and down from 106,000 the prior month. Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, up 8,000 week-on-week. These softening labor indicators push markets toward easing-rate expectations and may recalibrate cross-asset correlations.
Markets at a glance — BTC vs Gold
| Recent range | $107,000–$113,000 | Near $3,500 |
| Recent swing | Low $107,250 → High $112,600 | Surpassed $3,500 for first time |
| Correlation | Turned negative for first time since Feb 2025 | |
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Bitcoin historically tracked gold as a safe-haven?
Bitcoin has sometimes trended with gold on macro shocks, but the relationship is inconsistent. Periods of strong correlation exist, yet Bitcoin’s unique liquidity, adoption drivers and regulatory news often lead to distinct price behavior compared with gold.
What does a negative correlation mean for investors?
A negative correlation means BTC and gold move in opposite directions. Investors may use this to diversify portfolios or reassess hedging strategies, balancing digital and precious-metal exposure based on risk tolerance and macro outlook.
Key Takeaways
- Correlation shift: Bitcoin and gold correlation turned negative for first time since Feb 2025, indicating divergent flows.
- Price context: BTC consolidates near $110k while spot gold trades around $3,500.
- Macro drivers: Softer payrolls, higher claims and 97.4% Fed cut odds are central to market positioning.
Conclusion
Evidence shows the Bitcoin-gold correlation has recently decoupled, driven by macro signals and shifting Fed expectations. Traders should monitor incoming economic releases and the Sept. 16–17 Fed meeting closely. COINOTAG will continue to track price action and correlation updates as markets evolve.
