Whale Sell-offs and Rate Cut Speculation: Why Is the Crypto Market Gripped by Anxiety?

Original: Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author:Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)

Original Title: Rate Cut Game Unresolved, Whale Sell-Offs Continue—Where Is the Market Headed?

Anxious, extremely anxious. I always feel like I haven’t made any money yet, but the market is already starting to talk about turning bearish, and all sorts of news are making my head spin. Bitcoin’s weekly chart is facing a MACD death cross, while Ethereum is barely holding on. Trend Research, which recently scored impressive results by calling for ETH longs at the bottom, and has always been bullish on the Ethereum ecosystem, quietly sold off PENDLE and ENS at a loss this morning.

At a time like this, should I hold on or retreat? All I can do is keep searching through market voices, hoping someone can “recharge my faith” and offer an outlet for this anxiety.

The Ethereum and Bitcoin Game Stirred by Whales

In the past two weeks, the main character in the crypto market has been none other than an ancient whale. Their large-scale BTC sell-off to switch to ETH has been the “culprit” behind Bitcoin’s recent weakness. This whale has cumulatively dumped 34,110 BTC, cashing out about $3.7 billion, and bought 813,298.84 ETH, worth about $3.66 billion. Currently, the two remaining wallets still hold 49,816 BTC, valued at about $6 billion. The question is: will they continue to sell? How much more? It’s like a sword of Damocles hanging over Bitcoin. All I can say is, the sellers are too powerful.

For Ethereum, the whale’s rebalancing is an obvious positive. This may be one of the key reasons why ETH has been stronger than BTC recently. However, the next two weeks won’t be easy for Ethereum either—there are currently 932,246 ETH queued for unstaking, representing about $400 million in potential sell pressure that could hit the market.

Now, all eyes are on the whale’s actions. If they absorb Ethereum, it will inevitably hit Bitcoin hard—a zero-sum game is still ongoing.

Super Week: The Clash of Data and Rate Cuts

In the coming weeks, the global market’s attention is almost entirely on the Federal Reserve. According to today’s CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 87.4%, with investors betting that the Fed is about to start a new round of easing.

This week is truly a “super week”—ADP non-farm employment data, ISM Services PMI, and especially the core non-farm payroll report—all of these will influence the Fed’s FOMC decision on September 16-17. If a series of data, especially non-farm payrolls, are weak, the market may bet on the Fed starting rate cuts sooner and faster; if the data is strong, expectations for a rate cut will weaken. Either way, this week’s market is bound to be highly volatile. For investors, caution is the only answer.

Although Powell’s speech on the evening of August 22 sent dovish signals, it did not provide strong guidance on the duration or magnitude of rate cuts. The latest research from CICC points out that the market should not over-interpret Fed Chair Powell’s “dovish” remarks at Jackson Hole. With the US facing higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies, both employment and inflation risks coexist. If inflation risk outweighs employment, the Fed may halt rate cuts. Even if there is a 25 basis point cut in September, it does not mean the start of a sustained easing cycle. CICC warns that if “quasi-stagflation” pressures intensify, the Fed will face a dilemma and market volatility may increase.

The Trump camp is trying to push for a more cohesive Federal Reserve Board to tilt policy dovish. The Fed board has seven seats; currently, apart from Cook (who is in a legal battle with Trump), two members—Jefferson and Barr—were appointed by the Biden administration and, like Cook, are aligned with Powell. Bowman, Waller, and Mullan are generally seen as Trump supporters. If the court rules that Trump can fire Cook, he will quickly nominate a successor, gaining a 4-3 majority on the board. However, this ruling is unlikely before the September meeting, but Cook’s absence could result in a tie between Trump’s three appointees, Biden’s two, and Powell. The September rate meeting could be a watershed for market direction.

Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said it’s right for investors to remain cautious in September. After a long pause, the Fed is restarting a mild rate-cut cycle, making it hard for traders to determine positions. The long-term US stock bull expects the S&P 500 to fall 5% to 10% this fall, then rebound to between 6,800 and 7,000 points.

WLFI Siphoning Market Liquidity?

Another “super bomb” is also counting down. The Trump family’s crypto project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), will launch tonight at 8pm. Many can’t help but recall the previous TRUMP token: enriching a small group while crashing the broader market. So, the big question is: will the TRUMP scenario repeat with WLFI?

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684 xtpa’s summary of WLFI investor purchase costs, WLFI held eight rounds of public fundraising, raising a total of $2.26 billion. At the current pre-market price of $0.32, the lowest cost in the first round was only $0.015, meaning a profit margin of over 20x, suggesting a high likelihood of “dumping” after WLFI goes live.

Two public rounds have confirmed a 20% TGE unlock, with the remaining 80% pending community vote. Team/advisor/partner tokens are locked, but it’s still unclear whether strategic round tokens will be unlocked. The entire network is watching TGE circulating supply. Coinmarketcap.com data shows a circulating supply of 27.2 billion tokens, worth about $8.7 billion. The CMC CEO said this figure was repeatedly confirmed with the project team, meaning strategic round tokens will also circulate at TGE. If so, an immediate “dump” at launch seems inevitable.

However, crypto KOL @0xDylan_ (suspected to be a WLFI Wallet team member) posted that the WLFI tokenomics have been updated: 8% allocated to Alt 5 Public Company and locked, 10% reserved for future incentive programs and points (locked, details pending official announcement). Team and institutional investor shares are locked. Additionally, 3% is for centralized exchange liquidity (CEX liquidity) and decentralized exchange liquidity (DEX LP), and 5% for investors. This means the circulating supply is the unlocked 5% plus the 3% for liquidity, totaling 8%, or 8 billion tokens worth $2.56 billion.

Odaily previously predicted in “WLFI Halved Pre-Launch, Will It Rise or Fall on September 1?” that another possibility is that WLFI, also endorsed by Trump, could see Trump congratulate or hype WLFI on social media on launch day, giving it more room for speculation due to its ambiguous relationship with the president.

If we add in the fact that only 8% will circulate, WLFI’s price may be pushed higher at launch. But a high FDV and potential strategic round sell pressure are ticking time bombs—if the unlock ratio increases or hype cools, a sharp correction could still follow.

Other Market Voices: Bitcoin Remains a Belief, but Caution Needed in the Short Term

Hedging Logic: Gold and Bitcoin in Parallel

Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” mentioned Bitcoin again, saying Europe is facing a severe debt crisis, France is close to a “Bastille Day-style” revolt, and Germany’s energy policies have made manufacturing too costly, even risking internal unrest. He pointed out that since 2020, US Treasuries have fallen 13%, European bonds 24%, and UK bonds 32%, with global markets losing confidence in major economies’ debt repayment abilities. Kiyosaki noted that Japan and China are selling US Treasuries and turning to gold and silver, and once again urged investors to protect themselves by holding gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

Bitwise’s Head of European Research, André Dragosch, also said that gold is usually the best hedge when stocks fall, while Bitcoin is more resilient when US Treasuries are under pressure. Historical data shows that gold tends to rise during stock bear markets, while Bitcoin is more supported during US Treasury sell-offs. As of 2025, gold prices have risen over 30%, Bitcoin about 16.46%, reflecting investors’ differentiated choices amid rising yields, stock volatility, and Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Traders’ Caution and Waiting: Uptrend Expected in Fall 2025

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he is not currently trading, but wants to clarify (for followers) that for altcoins to see significant volatility, Bitcoin must first break upward, which has not yet met bulls’ expectations.

Previously, on August 14, Eugene closed most of his ETH positions to greatly reduce risk exposure, and on August 24, he said the bull cycle was ending and his ETH trading had completely ceased.

In the latest “Matrix onTarget” report, Matrixport also said it has turned more conservative, noting that this correction may continue. Seasonal weakness has been evident since late July, and stage pressure is building.

This week, US employment data will be released, and Bitcoin is at a key technical level. If the price drops further, it may surprise most traders, but this risk cannot be ignored. Historical experience shows that rate cuts are often seen as bullish for crypto, but usually come with turbulence.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan said the crypto market cycle is slowing, with an uptrend expected in fall 2025. Looking at the proportion of Bitcoin held for over a year (based on realized market cap), past cycles (first and second stages) saw the market surge and peak. However, in the current (third) stage, the uptrend slope is flattening and the cycle is lengthening.

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno posted on X that from a short-term valuation perspective, if Bitcoin cannot quickly reclaim $112,000, the next support is around $100,000. Currently, BTC is quoted at $107,420.

Conclusion

Whether it’s whale rebalancing, macro rate cut games, or professional traders’ cautious attitudes, almost all voices share a common point: the current market is in a gray area, and waiting and caution are the only strategies.

Anxiety may not disappear; it will continue to accompany us through every market swing. But perhaps this is the market’s norm—it never offers certainty, only choices.

What we can do is not anxiously seek someone to “recharge our faith,” but to find our own stance amid uncertainty and build patience through repeated testing.