Solana's ABC Elliott Wave Pattern and Wave C Breakout Potential to $300

The Solana (SOL) ecosystem is at a pivotal juncture, with technical and on-chain signals converging to support a mid-term bullish breakout. A deep dive into the ABC Elliott Wave pattern and institutional-driven momentum reveals a compelling case for Solana to test $300 by year-end.

Technical Analysis: Wave C as the Final Catalyst

Solana’s price action aligns with a textbook ABC corrective pattern, where Wave C represents the final leg of a downtrend before a potential reversal. Analysts note that Wave C has already retraced to key Fibonacci levels, with historical price behavior suggesting a target range of $260–$300 if the pattern completes successfully [1]. The bearish U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) further amplifies risk-on sentiment, creating a tailwind for assets like Solana [1].

On the 4-hour chart, Solana has formed a double-bottom pattern on its BTC pair and an ascending triangle, both of which point to $255 as an immediate resistance level [3]. If Wave C breaks below current support levels, it could trigger a short-term pullback. However, a successful hold above $180—confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle—would validate the pattern’s completion and open the door to a $300 rally [4].

Backtest the impact of Solana with Double Bottom, from 2022 to now.
Historical backtests of Double Bottom patterns on Solana since 2022 reveal 18 qualifying events between June 2022 and April 2025. Across a 30-day holding window post-confirmation, cumulative average excess returns remained negative (~-2%) compared to a ~+6% benchmark, with no day-level results reaching statistical significance. The win rate never exceeded 56% during this period, suggesting the pattern did not consistently precede upward momentum for SOL [1].

On-Chain Momentum: Institutional Capital and Network Activity

Beyond technicals, Solana’s on-chain metrics tell a story of institutional adoption and network resilience. In Q3 2025, over $2.7 billion in institutional capital flowed into Solana, driven by major firms like Galaxy Digital , Jump Crypto, and Pantera Capital [2]. These inflows, coupled with the approval of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (SSK), have removed compliance barriers for institutional participation [1].

The blockchain’s infrastructure upgrades, including the Alpenglow consensus upgrade, have pushed throughput to 65,000+ transactions per second (TPS) and enabled sub-200ms finality [2]. This scalability has attracted public companies staking $1.72 billion in SOL at 6.86% yields, with 13 publicly traded firms now holding 1.44% of the total supply [1]. Daily active addresses and transaction counts have surged 10x year-over-year, outpacing Ethereum and Polygon [3].

Convergence of Factors: A $300 Pathway

The alignment of technical and on-chain signals creates a self-reinforcing bullish narrative. If Wave C completes and Solana breaks above $255, the next resistance lies at $335—a level supported by a 15x institutional inflow multiplier model [1]. This scenario assumes continued ETF-driven demand and a broader risk-on environment, both of which are gaining traction as the U.S. dollar weakens.

However, risks remain. A breakdown below $180 could extend Wave C further, testing the $120–$140 range. Traders should monitor the 50-day moving average and on-chain exchange flows for early signs of capitulation or accumulation [4].

Conclusion

Solana’s ABC Elliott Wave pattern and institutional-driven momentum present a high-conviction trade for the mid-term. With technicals pointing to $300 and on-chain activity reinforcing network strength, the next few months will be critical for confirming the pattern’s validity. Investors should balance optimism with caution, using key Fibonacci levels and institutional inflow data as dynamic indicators of the asset’s trajectory.