Convano’s $3 Billion Bitcoin Treasury Strategy: A Bold Move or a High-Risk Gamble?

The corporate world’s embrace of Bitcoin as a treasury asset has reached a fever pitch, with companies leveraging stock-market capital to bet on the digital asset’s long-term value. Nowhere is this trend more audacious than in the case of Convano Inc., a Japanese nail salon chain that has pivoted to a $3 billion Bitcoin acquisition strategy . By 2027, the company aims to hold 21,000 BTC—0.1% of the total supply—through a phased plan that combines equity and debt financing. But as the market grapples with the risks of leveraged crypto bets, the question remains: Is Convano’s strategy a visionary hedge or a precarious gamble?

The Mechanics of Convano’s Play

Convano’s approach is rooted in a three-phase roadmap: acquiring 2,000 BTC by 2025, 10,000 BTC by 2026, and 21,000 BTC by 2027 [2]. As of August 2025, the company has already accumulated 364.93 BTC, valued at approximately $41.5 million, using funds raised from corporate bonds and equity offerings [3]. This strategy is underpinned by Japan’s regulatory tailwinds, including the FSA’s 2026 roadmap and reduced crypto tax rates, which lower barriers for institutional adoption [3].

The company’s leverage mechanisms mirror those of pioneers like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which has raised $5 billion through at-the-market equity offerings to fund Bitcoin purchases [4]. Convano, however, has taken a more aggressive stance, issuing bonds and convertible debt to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation. For example, a ¥434 billion ($2.7 million) investment in July 2024 added 22.62 BTC to its holdings [2]. This approach has driven Convano’s stock price up 78.76% post-announcement, reflecting investor enthusiasm for dual exposure to equity gains and Bitcoin price swings [4].

The Risks of Leverage and Volatility

While Convano’s strategy aligns with a broader trend—over 170 public companies now hold Bitcoin as treasury assets—the risks are substantial. Bitcoin’s volatility exposes firms to balance sheet instability, particularly if prices reverse. For instance, Strategy’s 30% price drop in March 2025 triggered a $5.9 billion unrealized loss, sparking a stock price collapse [5]. Convano’s reliance on debt and equity issuance creates similar vulnerabilities. If Bitcoin underperforms, the company may face forced liquidations or dilution to meet funding obligations, eroding shareholder value [5].

Moreover, the “death spiral” risk looms large. If Convano’s stock price falls below its net asset value (NAV), investor confidence could erode, forcing the company to sell Bitcoin at depressed prices to service debt. This dynamic has already strained weaker players in the Bitcoin treasury space, with critics warning of a potential industry consolidation [5].

A Comparative Lens: Strategy’s Lessons

Strategy’s experience offers a cautionary tale. The company’s balanced use of equity and debt—such as issuing low-interest convertible notes and perpetual preferred stocks—has allowed it to grow its Bitcoin holdings to 632,457 BTC while maintaining a 1.7–2.0x premium to NAV [4]. However, its model is not without flaws. Annual dividend obligations on preferred stocks exceed operating cash flow, creating a $160 million funding gap that requires continuous capital raising [5]. Convano’s strategy, while ambitious, lacks the same level of governance and transparency, raising concerns about its ability to navigate market downturns [5].

The Bigger Picture: Institutional Legitimacy vs. Speculation

Convano’s strategy reflects a broader shift in corporate finance, where Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against fiat depreciation and a tool for shareholder value creation [3]. By 2027, the company’s 21,000 BTC target would represent 3.64% of the total Bitcoin supply held by corporate treasuries—a figure that underscores the asset’s growing institutional legitimacy [6]. Yet, this legitimacy is contingent on Bitcoin’s performance. If ETFs and pension funds gain easier access to Bitcoin through traditional instruments, the demand for corporate proxies like Convano could wane, further pressuring its stock [5].

Conclusion: A Calculated Gamble?

Convano’s Bitcoin treasury strategy is undeniably bold. By leveraging Japan’s regulatory environment and aggressive capital-raising, the company has positioned itself at the forefront of a corporate crypto revolution. However, the risks of leverage, volatility, and governance challenges cannot be ignored. While the strategy could pay off handsomely if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, it remains a high-stakes bet that hinges on the company’s ability to execute its roadmap without missteps. For investors, the key will be monitoring Convano’s balance sheet discipline and its capacity to adapt to shifting market dynamics—a test that will determine whether this nail salon-turned-Bitcoin miner becomes a trailblazer or a cautionary tale.

Source:
[1] Bitcoin Corporate Treasuries Face 2025 Death Spiral Risk
[2] Convano Joins Japan Inc.'s Bitcoin Race, Plans
[3] Bitcoin Investment: Convano's Strategic Move to Acquire 200 BTC, Boosting Holdings to 364.93 BTC
[4] The Bitcoin treasury model is breaking, but Strategy's isn't.
[5] The Cracks in the Bitcoin Treasury Model: Is MicroStrategy Sustainable?
[6] BTC Treasuries Uncovered: Premiums, Leverage and