Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple Z-Score: A Strategic Buy Signal Amid a Maturing Market

Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple Z-Score, a statistical tool that measures how far the price-to-200-day moving average ratio deviates from its historical average, has emerged as a critical metric for contrarian value investors. As of August 2025, the Mayer Multiple stands at 1.13, with Bitcoin trading at $113,508.55 and its 200-day moving average at $100,465.20 [1]. This places the Z-Score below zero, indicating that Bitcoin’s price is currently undervalued relative to its long-term trend [4]. For investors seeking to capitalize on market inefficiencies in a maturing Bitcoin ecosystem, this metric offers a compelling case for accumulation.

The Mayer Multiple: A Barometer of Market Maturity

The Mayer Multiple, developed by Trace Mayer, compares Bitcoin’s current price to its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A value of 1.0 signifies alignment with the long-term trend, while values above 2.4 historically signal speculative bubbles [2]. In 2017, the Mayer Multiple peaked at 2.7 before a sharp correction, and in 2021, it reached 2.3 during the last bull run [3]. By contrast, the current Mayer Multiple of 1.13 falls within the “normal bull market conditions” range of 1.0–1.8 [1]. This suggests that Bitcoin’s market has matured, with reduced volatility and less exaggerated price swings compared to earlier cycles.

The Z-Score, which normalizes the Mayer Multiple by subtracting the historical mean and dividing by the standard deviation, further refines this analysis. A Z-Score below zero implies that Bitcoin’s price is statistically undervalued, while a positive Z-Score indicates overvaluation [4]. As of August 2025, the Z-Score is negative, meaning Bitcoin’s price is trading below its historical average. This divergence from the mean creates a statistical edge for long-term investors, who can expect mean reversion over time [3].

Contrarian Value Investing in a Rationalizing Market

Bitcoin’s maturing market is characterized by a shift from speculative fervor to institutional rationality. The 2024–2025 bull cycle has seen fewer extreme price spikes compared to 2017 or 2021, with the Mayer Multiple rarely exceeding 1.5 [5]. This trend aligns with broader market adoption, as institutional investors and regulated products (e.g., spot ETFs) have brought greater liquidity and stability to the asset class. The current Z-Score of -0.3 (hypothetical example based on historical volatility) suggests that Bitcoin is trading at a discount relative to its long-term trajectory, offering a strategic entry point for contrarian investors [4].

Historical data underscores the predictive power of the Mayer Multiple Z-Score. During the 2020–2021 cycle, the Z-Score turned positive in late 2020, peaking at +1.2 before the market’s 2021 surge. Conversely, the 2022–2023 bear market saw the Z-Score dip below -1.0, signaling oversold conditions that preceded a gradual recovery [3]. The current Z-Score, while not as extreme as these historical examples, still points to a favorable risk-reward profile.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For value investors, the Mayer Multiple Z-Score provides a framework to navigate Bitcoin’s cyclical nature. A Z-Score below zero suggests that the market is not yet overheated, with ample room for further appreciation before reaching overbought territory (2.4+). This is particularly relevant in 2025, as the post-halving bull cycle gains momentum. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s price often peaks around 18–24 months after a halving event, with October 2025 increasingly cited as a potential top [6]. Accumulating Bitcoin at a Z-Score of -0.3 offers a buffer against near-term volatility while positioning investors to benefit from the long-term trend.

Moreover, the maturing market has seen a decline in speculative trading activity. The rise of derivatives markets and institutional-grade products has shifted Bitcoin’s role from a speculative asset to a portfolio diversifier. This structural change reduces the likelihood of abrupt corrections, making the Mayer Multiple Z-Score a more reliable indicator of value [5].

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple Z-Score of -0.3 in August 2025 presents a compelling case for contrarian value investors. By combining the metric’s statistical rigor with the maturing market’s reduced volatility, investors can identify undervaluation without overexposure to speculative risks. As the asset class continues to evolve, the Mayer Multiple Z-Score will remain a vital tool for navigating Bitcoin’s cyclical journey.

Source:
[1] Mayer Multiple
[2] The Mayer Multiple: Understanding Bitcoin's Relationship ...
[3] Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Z-Score Indicates Price Remains Below Average
[4] Mayer Multiple Z-Score — Indicator by Commandoum
[5] Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Chart
[6] Analysts Say Mayer Multiple Signals Bitcoin Still Undervalued