Is the four-year crypto cycle dead?

The debate is heating up. Listen, guys, you’ve heard it before, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, that predictable rhythm that kept traders and investors dancing, trusting the beat of halvings to drop the price fireworks every few years.

But now? The whispers are turning into shouts. The big shots are saying, game over, the four-year cycle’s over.

Rally like clockwork

Bitcoin’s past trips around the sun after each halving, 2012, 2016, 2020, you know the drill, showed those classic bull runs in the next years. The market was buzzing, the peaks came just like clockwork.

But now? The scene is different. Jason Williams, author and crypto investor, throws down the gauntlet, saying the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold nearly one million Bitcoin.

That’s why the 4-year cycle is over.

$BTC four-year cycle outlook

The correlation here is unreal

Bear market low to bull market top has lasted 1065 days in the past two cycles, with diminishing returns as highlighted by the fibs

Similarly, the bull market top to the bear market bottom has lasted 365 days… pic.twitter.com/bLPYm9iVJ9

— Harry Collins (@web3harry_) August 7, 2025

Matthew Hougan, the big brain at Bitwise Asset Management, nods to that thought. In CNBC, he said out loud what a lot were whispering.

“I think the 4-year cycle is over. Wait until 2026 to confirm, but it’s looking done.”

Institutional money

What happened? Institutional money flooded in, changing the game entirely, that’s what happened. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, breaks it down.

“95% of Bitcoin’s mined, supply comes mostly from buying out the old-timers. The halvings? Just background noise now. Demand? It’s retail, wealth platforms, treasury wallets.”

The four-year cycle? Useful reference, sure, but no longer the boss of the market. Crypto’s maturing into something bigger than just halving clocks.

Macro factors, regulatory shifts, institutional inflows, ETF rollouts, they’re all pulling strings now, says Martin Burgherr of Sygnum Bank.

The cycle’s just one piece of the puzzle, not the whole script.

Minority report

But as always, not everyone agrees. Crypto analyst “CRYPTO₿IRB ” pushes back hard, telling his massive audience that saying the four-year cycle’s dead is just plain wrong.

Saying 4-year cycle is gone is wrong IMO.

ETFs strengthened crypto 4-year cycles.

Just think about it:

Tradfi is 4-year cycles (presidential).

ETFs increase crypto-tradfi correlation.

(see long term correlation coefficient trend).

So merging crypto with tradfi through ETFs… pic.twitter.com/xDuyGO2BYZ

— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) August 10, 2025

The math’s baked in, halving cycles are immutable. ETFs? They actually tie crypto tighter to traditional finance’s four-year presidential rhythms, strengthening the cycle’s beat, not killing it.

Seamus Rocca, Xapo Bank CEO, chimes in, warning that risks of a prolonged bear market are still real. Institutions coming in doesn’t mean the cycled nature of Bitcoin is history. Nah, he says the four-year cycle’s still kicking strong.

Either way, the four-year cycle feels like that old faithful friend whose grip is loosening, but not quite ready to leave the party.

The narrative’s shifting, the market’s maturing, but the rhythm? It might just be playing a new tune alongside the old.