Key points:
Bitcoin will beat its prior cycle’s gains for the first time if it makes it to $340,000 this bull market.
While a “very big ask,” such a feat would make BTC the world’s second most valuable asset by market cap.
BTC is already an outperformer among macro assets over the past five years.
Bitcoin ( BTC ) will make history if its price triples before the end of the current bull cycle.
In an X post Monday, macro trader and investor Jason Pizzino queried whether BTC/USD could beat its previous cycle gains of nearly 2,100%.
Bitcoin to $340,000 this cycle: A “very big ask”
Bitcoin is already up 700% versus its $15,600 bear market low in 2022, but those gains remain comparatively tame by historical standards.
In percentage terms, BTC price action has a long way to go until it matches even its previous bull market.
Between 2019 and 2021, BTC/USD delivered maximum gains of 2,089%. To do the same, Pizzino says, is a “very big ask” — price would need to hit a giant $340,000.
“If Bitcoin hits $340,000 this cycle, it would be the first time in its 16-year history that it has a greater return than the previous cycle. It is a very big ask, but many are asking if it’s possible,” he wrote.
“That is a $6.7 trillion market cap, less than a third of gold's market cap at roughly $23T, and it’d put BTC in second place as the most valuable asset in the world, behind gold.”
As Cointelegraph reported , Bitcoin is already in the top five macro assets by market cap worldwide as of July 2025.
Bitcoin “remains in a league of its own”
In further findings, Pizzino saw an increasing positive correlation between Bitcoin and another macro asset class.
Related: BTC price to fill $117K CME gap? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
The 18-year real estate cycle, he argued, is starting to fit Bitcoin’s existing lifespan.
“Bitcoin and the 18-Year Cycle are going hand-in-hand for their first complete cycle together,” he summarized , calling the correlation a “superb love story.”
In gold terms, BTC put in current all-time highs in late 2024, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
A subsequent bull run on gold sent BTC/XAU down 40% before a rebound, with 1 BTC now worth around 36 ounces.
As Bitcoin JAN3 Financial, the financial services arm of Bitcoin adoption company JAN3 notes, the long-term view favors Bitcoin’s returns.
“Over the past 5 years, Bitcoin has easily outperformed all major asset classes with a staggering 58.2% CAGR,” it confirmed Monday, referring to the combined annual growth rate.
“The closest competitor, QQQ, delivered 16.28%, followed by SPY at 13.68% and gold (GLD) at 10.49%. Bitcoin remains in a league of its own.”
