Key takeaways:
XLM eyes a 35% breakout toward $0.63 as it tests an ascending triangle resistance.
A strong historical correlation with XRP suggests that XLM may continue rallying.
Stellar ( XLM ) looks set for a 35% price rally, driven by a bullish continuation pattern and XRP’s ( XRP ) recent surge.
XLM ascending triangle targets $0.63
XLM is consolidating within an ascending triangle, a classic bullish continuation setup characterized by rising lows and horizontal resistance.
The resistance level, near $0.52, has been tested multiple times since Tuesday, while the higher lows show increasing buying pressure.
A breakout above $0.52 could confirm the pattern and trigger a rally toward $0.63 by August, marking a 35% gain from the current price.
The upside target is derived by adding the triangle’s maximum height to the breakout point.
Momentum indicators also support the bullish case. The relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below overbought levels, suggesting room for more upside.
XLM continues to hold above its 20-, 50-, and 200-4H exponential moving averages (EMAs), all of which now slope upward. This alignment adds strength to the short- and medium-term bullish outlook.
The short-term bullish pattern aligns with a macro accumulation structure highlighted by veteran trader Peter Brandt .
Brandt says that XLM could be the “most bullish chart” in the crypto market, but only if it decisively closes above the $1 level, a horizontal barrier it has tested but never broken with conviction.
XRP correlation acts as a tailwind
The bullish outlook for XLM appears after the token’s 90%-plus gains in the past month, mirroring XRP’s 60%-plus rally in the same period.
On a broader time frame, XLM is still lagging behind XRP’s price gains. The Stellar token is up about 425% since the November low, while XRP has gained by over 590% in the same period.
This recent outperformance by XLM signals a catch-up rally, often seen when XRP leads bullish moves.
Historically, the two assets exhibit a strong directional correlation, driven by their shared founder and similar use cases in cross-border payments.
During bull phases, the XLM–XRP correlation coefficient typically exceeds 0.70 , reflecting synchronized price action.
A notable example came in July 2023, when a favorable US court ruling in Ripple’s case sparked a 60% rally in XRP.
Related: XRP jumps 22% into price discovery as market cap hits a record $210B
Stellar followed with a 60%+ surge of its own , pushing the correlation coefficient to 0.95, a near-perfect alignment.
This pattern continues to play out in 2025, reinforcing the view that XLM may extend its rally as long as XRP remains elevated.
