Various crypto market signals are flashing that an altcoin season might be just around the corner — or that we’ve already stepped into it. However, dark clouds are gathering on the macroeconomic front, raising the question: Will altseason actually happen the way many expect?
Indicators Flash Altcoin Season
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $123,000 yesterday, signaling the start of a potential historic rally.
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A rare and powerful bullish signal, the Golden Cross , has just appeared on the Altcoin Index daily chart, suggesting that altcoins may soon follow BTC’s lead. The Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses above the 200-day MA, indicating momentum is shifting upward.
Golden Cross forming on Altcoin Index. Source: TradingView
Historically, this pattern has preceded major rallies, and current technicals point toward a strong trend reversal in the coming weeks.
According to several crypto traders , altcoins may be on the verge of a massive breakout, possibly entering an Altseason reminiscent of 2017 or 2021. A key multi-year resistance line has just been touched for the first time in over four years, and a long-term falling wedge pattern appears to be nearing a breakout.
Reportedly, TOTAL3, an index that tracks the crypto market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has broken a 7-month downtrend, setting up a major upside move. Based on this chart and historical cycles, this could mark an entry to the most profitable phase for altcoins.
Macro Uncertainty Looms Ahead of Altseason
Despite optimistic signals for altcoins, macroeconomic conditions are injecting serious caution into the market outlook.
One major concern is the record-high reading in Bloomberg’s Government Bond Liquidity Index, which measures how easily government bonds can be traded. On Monday, the index surged to 6.5 points, the highest level ever recorded, double where it was just a few months ago, as government spending soars in the U.S. and Japan.
According to the Kobeissi Letter, “A higher reading in this index means LESS liquidity for global bond markets.”
This lack of liquidity has caused long-term government bonds to sell off, driving yields sharply higher. For example, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is now approaching 5.00%, its highest level since May.
Rising bond yields often translate into higher interest rates for consumer and business loans, making borrowing more expensive. This, in turn, tends to reduce consumption and investment, a potential headwind for risk assets like crypto and equities.
CPI Report Looms as Markets Brace for Upside Surprise
Adding to the uncertainty, this Tuesday’s upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation report is expected to show a significant uptick.
Economists expect headline inflation to climb to 2.7% year-over-year in June, up from 2.4% in May. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to hit 2.9%, up from 2.8%.
This increase may reflect the delayed impact of Trump tariffs, which manufacturers and retailers are now passing on to consumers via higher prices.
This report is especially critical because it directly influences the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates.
If inflation continues to climb, the Fed may delay rate cuts or even consider raising rates again, putting pressure on risk assets across the board.
In the short term, equities tend to fall on stronger inflation data, as higher borrowing costs reduce corporate profit margins and dampen investor risk appetite. The crypto market typically reacts in kind.
Why This Matters
Despite bullish technical signals pointing to an incoming Altseason, tightening macroeconomic conditions, especially rising bond yields and inflation, could suppress the rally by draining market liquidity and investor risk appetite.
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People Also Ask:
Altseason refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when altcoins experience a significant price surge and outperform Bitcoin in terms of gains.
Signs of an Altseason include strong price rallies across multiple altcoins, Bitcoin dominance falling, bullish technical patterns like the Golden Cross on altcoin indices, and increased trading volume in altcoins.
Altseason often happens when investor interest shifts from Bitcoin to altcoins, usually due to Bitcoin reaching a peak or consolidation phase, new projects gaining traction, or broader market liquidity encouraging riskier bets.
Investing during Altseason requires careful research, risk management, and understanding of each altcoin’s fundamentals and market trends. Diversifying and setting stop-loss orders can help manage risk.
