PENGU breaks out of cup and handle with 75% upside potential

PENGU appears poised to extend its ongoing rally after successfully breaking above the neckline resistance of a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart.

Pudgy Penguins ( PENGU ) rose over 23% intraday to hit $0.0177, its highest price since January 29. The latest move brings the token’s gains to over 125% since last month’s low and approximately 370% above its year-to-date bottom. 

The token’s rally has propelled it to become the top performer among the top 100 crypto assets by market capitalization, with PENGU now ranking as the 89th largest crypto asset. Its market cap has reclaimed the $1 billion milestone, underscoring a significant return of investor confidence.

The recent surge was catalyzed by news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has formally acknowledged the filing for the proposed Canary spot PENGU ETF. 

The ETF would allocate 80–95% of its assets to PENGU tokens and 5–15% to Pudgy Penguins NFTs, combining exposure to both the token and the broader Pudgy Penguins IP ecosystem.

An acknowledgment from the securities regulator is generally viewed as bullish because it marks the first formal step in the approval process.

Among other on-chain trends supporting a bullish narrative, large holders, or whales, have increased their PENGU holdings by 21% over the past month, now collectively controlling 2.18 billion tokens. This accumulation during recent price dips suggests growing long-term conviction among sophisticated investors.

Source: Nansen

Simultaneously, PENGU’s circulating supply on exchanges has declined notably, from 15.6 billion on June 12 to 14.3 billion as of this week. A reduction in exchange reserves is typically interpreted as bullish, as it indicates reduced selling pressure and a higher likelihood of tokens being held in cold storage or long-term wallets.

Further reinforcing the bullish case, data from CoinGlass shows that PENGU’s weighted funding rate turned positive on derivatives exchanges for the first time since July 1. A positive funding rate indicates that long positions are paying shorts, typically reflecting a shift toward bullish market sentiment and increased demand for leverage on the long side.

PENGU price forms a cup and handle pattern

The daily chart for PENGU reveals a clear cup-and-handle pattern formation, a historically reliable bullish continuation setup. The token bottomed at $0.0037 in March before rebounding to a local high of $0.0175 in May, creating a rounded base followed by a brief consolidation phase, the “handle” portion of the pattern.

PENGU 1-day price chart — July 10 | Source: crypto.news

The cup-and-handle formation is defined by two distinct price swings, an initial drop and recovery forming the “cup,” followed by a smaller, shallower pullback that shapes the “handle.” 

It has since broken above the neckline resistance of this structure, which usually signals the start of a potential breakout.

The vertical distance between the cup’s upper resistance and the March low measures approximately 79%. Applying this projected move from the breakout point suggests a potential upside target near $0.0318. 

This would represent a gain of around 75% from the current price level. However, this bullish forecast would be invalidated if the token drops below the support level at $0.0142.

At press time, PENGU remains significantly below its December 2024 high of $0.06845, leaving substantial room for upside if bullish momentum continues.