Bitcoin Opens Q3 2025 with 1.61% Gain Amid Tight Range and Historical Divergence

• Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range between $107,386 and $109,117 after a 0.8% daily drop.
  
• Q3 has started with a 1.61% gain, following Q2’s 29.74% increase and Q1’s 11.82% decline.
  
• Historical Q3 performance in post-halving years has ranged from 25% to over 80%.

Bitcoin started the third quarter of 2025 with weak momentum despite moving into what has historically been a favorable cycle year. The cryptocurrency is worth $108,142 at the moment, which represents a decline of 0.8% over the past 24 hours. This move has BTC slightly above short-term support at $107,386, while short-term resistance stands at $109,117. These levels have formed the day’s trading range, capping both upside and downside attempts so far.

Historically, years following Bitcoin halving events have shown remarkable gains. The table of quarterly returns highlights 2013, 2017, and 2021 as strong post-halving years. In those years, Q1 delivered positive performances, followed by mixed Q2 returns and often stronger outcomes in Q3 and Q4. However, 2025 has not strictly followed that pattern in the first half. Q1 saw a decline of 11.82%, while Q2 posted a rebound of 29.74%.

Q3 Begins With Sluggish Upside as Support Holds

As Q3 begins, Bitcoin’s price remains relatively stable with a gain of 1.61%. This mild performance contrasts with previous post-halving Q3 gains such as 40.6% in 2013 and 80.41% in 2017. Volume remains moderate, and no significant breakouts have occurred above the $109,117 resistance. Price action continues to consolidate within a narrow band, which may determine short-term trend continuation.

The ongoing pattern shows BTC respecting its support at $107,386. However, upside attempts face rejection around the $109,000 region. This suggests cautious positioning from traders, even as historical data hints at potential growth in Q3s during similar cycles. Comparatively, 2021 had a stronger Q3 of 25.01% despite a weak Q2, showing the possibility of divergence in quarterly behavior.

Q1 and Q2 Returns Reflect Diverging 2025 Cycle Behavior

Bitcoin’s performance so far in 2025 shows deviation from previous post-halving years. The -11.82% in Q1 and +29.74% in Q2 do not align with 2021’s +103.17% and -40.36% or 2017’s +11.89% and +123.86%. Additionally, in 2013, BTC gained an extraordinary 539.96% in Q1 but lost 3.97% in Q2. These varied figures suggest that post-halving performance can differ each cycle despite general expectations.

The Q2 recovery this year was notable but failed to push BTC beyond significant resistance thresholds. It also comes as quarterly volatility remains within a reduced range. As Q3 progresses, market participants are closely watching key support and resistance levels to assess momentum.

BTC Holds Tight Range as Q3 Opens Cautiously

BTC’s current trading range between $107,386 and $109,117 frames short-term expectations. This narrow band continues to limit volatility early in Q3. Daily performance has shown little follow-through since the quarter opened, keeping price action muted. Historically, when Bitcoin maintains these tight bands in early Q3, it often precedes sharper moves either up or down.

While the 1.61% gain is positive, it lacks conviction seen in past post-halving third quarters. Without significant volume increases, resistance at $109,117 may continue to suppress bullish attempts. Meanwhile, any close below $107,386 could trigger broader selling. This technical positioning may define the tone of the quarter ahead.