Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Could Lift Economy, Says Banks

The U.S. Senate narrowly passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which has sparked economic disputes and criticism but has received support from some banks. 

The bill was passed on Saturday, with a 51-49 vote in the Senate. The bill features sweeping tax reforms and targeted incentives, but on the other hand, it has drawn criticism for its economic impact and projected $3 trillion addition to the federal deficit over the next decade.

The American Bankers Association has expressed strong support in a Sunday letter, citing the bill’s “much-needed tax relief.” David Seif, Nomura’s chief economist, stated that the OBBBA would likely benefit the U.S. economy in the short term by renewing expiring provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, preventing a sharp fiscal contraction in 2026. 

This prevents a sudden economic slowdown in 2026. He says the bill could encourage businesses to invest more now, though it might reduce investment later. Citi analysts agree, saying the bill, along with trade deals, will boost economic optimism in 2025, helped by tariff money and looser Federal Reserve policies.

Critics say the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has big problems. The Congressional Budget Office warns it will greatly increase the U.S. debt, which could make it hard to manage the country’s finances in the future. Morgan Stanley agrees the bill’s tax cuts could help industries like communications, manufacturing, and energy grow, but they also worry about the long-term risks to the economy due to the rising debt.

Erica York of the Tax Foundation criticized the bill as “fiscally irresponsible,” arguing its complex, poorly designed tax cuts favor certain workers while excluding others. York also highlighted the added administrative burden on the IRS, which will require more resources to update forms and enforcement tools. The debate continues as the bill nears the president’s desk.