Israel-Iran crisis boosts crypto bets on Polymarket

• Cryptocurrency bets surpass $7 million
• Polymarket focuses on predictions about the Israel-Iran conflict
• Geopolitical crisis increases use of blockchain for speculation

Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have seen more than $7 million worth of bets placed on Polymarket, a decentralized blockchain-based platform focused on forecasting global events. The June 13 Israeli offensive, which reportedly hit Iranian nuclear facilities and eliminated strategic military targets, has significantly increased the volume of trades related to the conflict.

The escalating geopolitical tension between Israel and Iran has inadvertently spurred a surge in digital betting, marking an unexpected twist in the world of cryptocurrencies. 🔥

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, saw an unprecedented volume of over $7 million… pic.twitter.com/3fveb5Vpni

— Cryptoland Media (@Cryptoland_eng) June 13, 2025

At Polymarket, more than 20 markets were created to speculate on the developments of the crisis. One of them, which predicts if Iran will retaliate militarily before midnight on June 13, has already moved more than $1 million, with participants assigning a 47% probability to the immediate response strike.

Another significant portion of users are betting on a later retaliation. Around US$661 have been invested in the possibility of an Iranian counterattack by the end of June, with an 89% chance of escalation expected in the coming weeks.

The possibility of direct US involvement is also among the most traded topics. One of the most active markets involves predictions of US military action against Iran before July, attracting more than $1,48 million in bets. The probability assigned to this scenario is around 25%.

There is still speculation about a possible diplomatic deal. More than $2 million has been invested in bets on a renegotiation of the US-Iran nuclear deal by July, but market confidence in that outcome is low, estimated at less than 10%.

The intense activity on Polymarket reflects the growing use of blockchain technologies as a tool for geopolitical speculation. According to Shayne Coplan, CEO of the platform, users do not see Polymarket simply as a betting tool, but as an alternative source of information: “They see Polymarket as a news site, because it keeps them updated on what is happening in the world.”

Despite growing adoption, the practice of betting on conflict events has drawn criticism. Experts warn that turning humanitarian crises into lucrative markets could trivialize real tragedies in the name of profit within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.