How an Israel-Iran War Could Impact the Crypto Market | US Crypto News

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Today, BeInCrypto dives into the influence of geopolitical tension on Bitcoin (BTC) amid growing tensions between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. The effects of any escalations beyond this point could spill over to crypto markets, potentially affecting investor portfolios.

Crypto News of the Day: Iran Attack Could Drive US Inflation to 5%

In the previous US Crypto News publication, BeInCrypto reported that the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report showed inflation cooling slightly to 2.4% in May. The reading undercut market expectations of 2.5%, and came alongside positive developments in the US-China trade talks.

Now, however, JPMorgan sees US CPI inflation going as high as 5% if Israel proceeds to attack Iran. This projection comes amid the expected impact on oil prices.

Indeed, an attack on Iran could disrupt its oil exports (approximately 1.5 million barrels/day). The country boasts vast oil resources and is the third-largest producer in the oil cartel OPEC.

Any disruption in its capacity to supply global markets could cause shortages, with JPMorgan forecasting oil prices rising to $120.

Oil price since the start of the year

For perspective, oil prices jumped 4% on June 11, reaching a 2-month high as tensions escalated in the Middle East. The surge came as sources revealed the US was preparing to evacuate its Iraqi embassy, citing heightened security concerns.

Iraq – Level 4: Do Not Travel Travel Advisory June 11, 2025 On June 11, the Department of State ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel due to heightened regional tensions. Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil… pic.twitter.com/ZKHTDelkmf

— U.S. Embassy Baghdad (@USEmbBaghdad) June 12, 2025

Citing the Energy Information Administration, Reuters reported that crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels in the US on Wednesday, with analysts expecting a draw of 2 million barrels.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that JPMorgan’s prediction of oil prices hitting $120 per barrel has precedent. In the 2019 Saudi Aramco attack, oil prices spiked by 14-20%.

With President Trump’s top priority being to lower energy prices for lower inflation, an attack driving oil prices to $120 would put rate hikes back on the table for the Federal Reserve (Fed).

This would invalidate the expectation that the Fed could start cutting interest rates by September.

“An attack driving oil prices to $120 would put rate HIKES back on the table,” the Kobeissi Letter noted.

US interest rate hikes generally reduce Bitcoin’s price by tightening liquidity and increasing borrowing costs.

In response, investor preference shifts to safer assets like bonds, as in 2022, sending Bitcoin from $47,000 to sub-$20,000.

Rightfully so, reports indicate that investors may already be aping into safety by longing for gold.

Gold at $3,400: Decoding the 84% Funding Rate Surge on Hyperliquid

Analyst Duo Nine indicates heavy long positions on PAXG, a gold-backed token, with the precious metal’s price exceeding $3,400/oz. This marks a record high driven by safe-haven demand amid US-China trade tensions and geopolitical wars.

Gold is above $3,400 and funding rates are at 84% per year on Hyperliquid. Someone is aping into safety by longing gold and shorting the rest. pic.twitter.com/xyWX9x1VZ1

— Duo Nine YCC (@DU09BTC) June 12, 2025

This unusual funding rate suggests traders are aggressively betting on gold’s stability, potentially shorting riskier assets like Bitcoin.

This aligns with historical trends where gold outperforms during economic uncertainty. A recent US Crypto News publication reported why Bitcoin may not be ready to replace gold.

“Bitcoin can add diversity to a portfolio but won’t reliably protect against stock market crashes since it doesn’t consistently move in the opposite direction,” Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and COO of the leading cross-chain data oracle provider RedStone, told BeInCrypto.

After CPI inflation fell below expectations, US Producer Price Index data also showed that headline and core PPI were better than expected.

PPI 0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.2%PPI Core 0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.3%PPI 2.6% YoY, Exp. 2.6%PPI Core 3.0% YoY, Exp. 3.1%

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 12, 2025

While Trump tariffs remain the key driver behind CPI and PPI readings, the disinflationary trend in services suggests that consumer demand is also weakening.

“Recent benign CPI and PPI data don’t indicate that foreign producers are eating our tariffs. U.S. companies are still selling inventory that they stocked up on pre-tariffs. With the dollar hitting a fresh three-year low today, sharply higher CPI and PPI numbers are coming soon,” Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff wrote.

Chart of the Day

Gold Price in the last 12 months. Source: BullionVault

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

• Strategy (MSTR) hits an all-time high in short interest, indicating growing bearish sentiment and potential for price movement.
• Andrew Tate’s risky 25x leveraged ETH trade mirrors James Wynn’s costly Hyperliquid collapse, with Tate losing over $583,000.
• Due to missing paperwork and eligibility issues, the SEC rejected DeFi Development’s $1 billion securities plan to buy Solana.
• Interactive Strength Inc. (TRNR), a US fitness company, plans to create the largest publicly listed AI-focused crypto treasury in America with FET tokens.
• Bitcoin drops below $108,000 due to US CPI rising to 2.4%, but investor buying pressure signals potential for a recovery toward $110,000.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts USD-backed stablecoins could exceed $2 trillion by 2028, contingent on strong regulatory frameworks.
• Retail sentiment for Bitcoin is overwhelmingly positive, hitting a 2:1 ratio of bullish to bearish social comments — the highest since Nov. 2024.
• A major whale or institution acquired 800 million WLFI tokens for 80 million USDT, signaling strong interest in the token.
• Ethereum’s future open interest hits an all-time high, surpassing $20 billion, driven by leverage and increasing speculative activity.

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company	At the Close of June 10	Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR)	$387.11	$377.95 (-2.37%)
Coinbase Global (COIN)	$250.68	$245.40 (-2.11%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY.TO)	$19.33	$19.00 (-1.71%)
MARA Holdings (MARA)	$16.35	$15.87 (-2.94%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT)	$10.55	$10.24 (-2.94%)
Core Scientific (CORZ)	$12.25	$12.00 (-2.04%)

Crypto equities market open race:  Google Finance