Bitcoin Forecast Depends on Fed Rate Cut, Analysts Say

• Bitcoin Could Surge to $125.000 on Interest Rate Cut
• Jobs report could affect Fed forecast
• Bearish signals put pressure on ETFs and crypto markets

The potential short-term appreciation of Bitcoin is directly linked to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to analysts at Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency could reach between $120.000 and $125.000 by June if the next US jobs report comes in below expectations, increasing the likelihood of early monetary easing.

The report, due out Friday, is expected to show between 125.000 and 130.000 new non-agricultural jobs, down from 177.000 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4,2%, while average hourly wages are expected to rise slightly between 0,2% and 0,3% on a monthly basis.

According to Bitfinex analysts, a weaker report could fuel the disinflation narrative and increase appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin. “We believe that if Bitcoin holds support above $105.000, it could reach the $120.000 to $125.000 range in June,” they said. They also point out that the move will not depend solely on the jobs data, but could extend to other factors that put pressure on the Fed to cut rates sooner.

On the other hand, a stronger report could push back these expectations, strengthen the dollar and push Bitcoin price towards a support range between $95.000 and $102.000. “We see some positive accumulation in the 95-97K region,” they added.

Currently, the CME FedWatch tool show that most operators expect the base rate to remain between 425 and 450 basis points at least until the end of July, with cuts mostly expected for September.

Meanwhile, BRN’s chief analyst Valentin Fournier is taking a more cautious tone. He points out that signs of weakening are mounting: a drop in crypto ETF inflows, a surge in IPOs and a drop in market momentum.

The pullback in ETFs is clear. Inflows into spot Bitcoin products in the US fell from $375 million to $87 million in a single day, while Ethereum ETFs halved their inflows.

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The recent selloff reinforces this view, with BTC down 3,5% in the past week, ETH down 4,3% and Solana down 11,8%. “We are reducing risk and shifting to a more defensive stance as we anticipate a gradual decline as long-term investors top up,” Fournier concluded.