Bitcoin long-term holders aren’t cashing out despite new ATH and that’s keeping the rally alive

Bitcoin’s May rally has been met with selective profit-taking by long-term holders, but the broader trend shows a slowdown in their selling. Between March 1 and May 27, the 7-day SMA of long-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) increased from 2.10 to 2.22, indicating a mild uptick in realized profits. However, the 30-day SMA declined from around 2.51 to 2.17 over the same period, marking a 13.6% drop.

Graph showing the 7D SMA for Bitcoin LTH SOPR from Jan. 1 to May 27, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

This divergence is important. While the 7-day SMA shows that some long-held coins were sold for profit into Bitcoin’s ATH of $111,700 on May 22, the 30-day average shows waning profit realization among long-term holders overall.

In previous cycles, an upward-sloping 30-day LTH SOPR has signaled increased sell-side pressure. Instead, the declining trend through March, April, and May suggests that older coins remained mostly dormant despite the rally.

Graph showing the 30D SMA for Bitcoin LTH SOPR from Jan. 1 to May 27, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

BTC gained over 26% since the beginning of March, moving from around $86,000 to an ATH of $111,700 and then down to around $109,000. Moves like this usually trigger heavier profit-taking across all cohorts, yet the SOPR trend shows restraint from long-term holders. This restraint implies a conviction-led hodling strategy and reduced structural selling pressure, both creating support for a continued rally.

As of May 27, the 30-day LTH SOPR remains above 2.0, still showing profitability but well below its March highs. If the price holds above $100,000 and the metric stays flat or trends lower, it would reinforce the view that long-term holders, including a huge portion of institutional investors, are not rushing to exit. That would certainly leave room for a continued price increase with a limited supply inflow coming from long-term holders.

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