Bitcoin eyes $120,000 price zone as exchange flows, leverage surge

Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain activity has intensified as the asset consolidates near $108,000, with $120,000 emerging as the next major price zone of interest. 

Glassnode’s May 28 report highlighted elevated investor profitability, rising accumulation, and robust exchange flows. These conditions resemble past bull market peaks. 

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $111,000 before pulling back to $107,000. It has since stabilized just above that level. 

Accumulation has surged, with Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score nearing its maximum value of 1.0, suggesting investors are aggressively adding to positions during this price discovery phase. The market observed similar behavior at the $70,000 and $107,000 highs in 2024.

Investor profitability is also heating up. The Relative Unrealized Profit metric has reached a level historically associated with euphoric market conditions. 

The report noted that only 16% of trading days see profits at this level. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) now indicates that the average coin moved on-chain has captured a 16% gain, ranking among the top 8% of all days historically.

Trading activity heating up

Exchange behavior confirms the trend, with roughly 33% of all Bitcoin volume now flowing through centralized exchanges, up from earlier in the year. 

The average profit on coins deposited into exchanges is $9,300, while the average loss is just $780, resulting in a 12:1 profit-to-loss ratio that mirrors prior bull cycles.

Leverage is also building. Futures open interest has climbed from $36.8 billion to $55.6 billion (+51%) since April, while options open interest surged to an all-time high of $46.2 billion, up $25.8 billion. 

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to draw inflows above $300 million daily, providing additional buy-side momentum.

Not exhausted

Technically, Bitcoin trades well above the 111-day moving average at $91,800, the 200-day moving average at $94,300, and the short-term holder cost basis at $95,900, reinforcing bullish momentum. 

On-chain pricing models place key resistance between $120,300 and $135,700. Historically, this range has encompassed only 17.5% of Bitcoin’s trading history, often serving as the upper limit during periods of euphoria.

The report concluded that the market is heating up but has not yet reached exhaustion. If momentum continues, the next test may occur at the $120,000 zone, provided investor demand can absorb rising profit-taking pressure.

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