Cryptographic Adventure in MapleStory: The NXDC Wealth Effect, Will the Spring of Blockchain Games Return? (Note: I have assumed the meaning of "NXP

Original Article Title: "The Encrypted Adventure of MapleStory: NXPC Creating Wealth Effect, Will the Spring of Blockchain Games Come Back?"

Original Article Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

Do you still remember the "MapleStory" that accompanied you in monster grinding, teaming up, and changing equipment? Younger Pioneers may not have experienced it, but this 20-year-old masterpiece of a game holds the memories of most post-80s and post-90s gamers in internet cafes, serving as one of the era imprints of online games entering China after the millennium.

Now, it has transformed into a rising star in blockchain games. The English name of "MapleStory" is MapleStory, and on May 15th, the blockchain game version MapleStory Universe with the same IP launched its governance token NXPC on exchanges such as Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, Gate.io, Bybit, Deepcoin, Bitget, Weex, MEXC; the project token NXPC's price directly surpassed $3, and its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) skyrocketed to $30 billion.

Along with the price surge came discussions about the NXPC airdrop. Under the current Binance Alpha point system, users who meet certain criteria will also receive the NXPC airdrop; based on the price of NXPC at the time of writing, regular users can receive over 600 U in airdrop benefits, making it the most generous "airdrop bonus" of the year.

Many players jokingly ask if there is still a chance to return to the BSC now, and the wealth effect has once again brought attention back. "MapleStory" itself represents the nostalgia of old players and has also brought some light to the outdated track of blockchain games. Has the blockchain game track, which has actually been debunked by the market, made a comeback?

Is NXPC Worth It?

We can look at the current frenzy of NXPC from two perspectives: whether the project itself is promising and whether it compares to the predecessors in the blockchain game track. NXPC is the governance token of MapleStory Universe, launched by Nexpace, Nexon's blockchain subsidiary, a Korean gaming giant. MapleStory, as a classic MMORPG that has been in operation for 20 years, has a global cumulative player base of over 180 million, with a historical revenue of up to $4 billion, making it one of the evergreen trees in the gaming industry.

Today, Nexon has moved this IP to the blockchain, attempting to create a community-driven digital economy through MapleStory Universe. From the project's whitepaper, NXPC has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with 16.37% (approximately 163.7 million tokens) immediately unlocked through airdrops, and 80% allocated for future ecosystem rewards, aiming to incentivize long-term participation from players and creators. NXPC also has a sister token, NESO, used for in-game transaction scenarios, which can be freely exchanged with NXPC, forming a dual-token model. This design attempts to find a balance between the in-game economy and token value, but it has also led many investors to sniff out a "gold farming" opportunity.

From this economic model perspective, this is still the loop of "Base Coin - In-Game Coin - NFT Asset", where one token acts as the platform's native token, with governance or staking functions, while also gaining various benefits designed in the game's rules; the other token purely serves as an in-game currency for consumption, and both tokens are consumed together to support the in-game NFT equipment item economy cycle.

This is not fundamentally different from the gameplay of most previous blockchain games. If we were to compare to the projects that once led the blockchain gaming sector, it seems that we could calculate a fair price range based on past performance.

Is the current price of NXPC at $3 or above already hitting a ceiling? Taking NXPC's current circulating supply of 16.37% (about 163.7 million tokens) as a reference, comparing it to the current market capitalization and historical highs of top projects such as Gala Games, The Sandbox, Decentraland, Axie Infinity, and Mobox, we can make a theoretical estimation:

Comparable Market Cap: Based on NXPC's current price of $3 (at the time of writing), it is already higher than Mobox at $0.24 and Axie Infinity at $2.17, and comparable to Decentraland at $3.4. If we compare it to Gala Games and The Sandbox with market caps of $703 million and $691 million, respectively, NXPC's price is expected to test the range of $4.06-$4.13.

However, compared to Mobox's undervaluation, NXPC's current price seems to already embody high market expectations.

Historical Highs Comparison: Looking back at the 2021-2022 blockchain gaming bull market, Gala Games and The Sandbox achieved market caps as high as $6.9-$7 billion. If we estimate based on the historical peak market values of these projects during that time, their prices could reach the $15-$40 range. But the prerequisite is that NXPC must replicate the ecosystem vitality and market frenzy of those projects during that year. Fundamentally, the gaming sector itself does not have a particularly significant narrative or technological breakthrough, and relying solely on the old IP of "MapleStory" to drive the price to this range may be overly optimistic.

Instant Effect

From the current data, NXPC appears to be more of a funding-specific anomaly. The Binance NXPC/USDT perpetual contract funding rate once plunged to -2%, and is currently at -0.7%, indicating that shorts need to pay longs. This negative premium is often a precursor to a short squeeze — a large number of short positions being liquidated, driving the price even higher.

At the same time, on NXPC's first day of trading, major exchanges such as Binance ensured short-term trading depth and liquidity; numerous trading platforms successively launched contracts, further stimulating speculative capital inflows. MEXC data shows that NXPC's 24-hour trading volume has reached $6.85 million, highlighting the speculative sentiment.

Returning to the fundamentals, NXPC's value realization also faces significant challenges. First, the game is currently in the public testing phase, and player retention rate and the stability of the economic model have not yet been market-tested. The lesson from Axie Infinity tells us that blockchain gaming projects that rely too heavily on speculation and neglect player experience and economic balance ultimately struggle to survive. Second, NXPC's value is highly dependent on the activity of the creator economy.

NXPC emphasizes the creator economy rather than a mere "pay-to-win" model. MapleStory Universe allows players and creators to produce content through Synergy Apps, such as designing unique equipment or levels, and then minting them as NFTs for trading using NXPC. If there is insufficient creator participation or if the NFT item trading market has low liquidity, the demand for NXPC could plummet. Shifting from a pure "Play-to-Earn" model to "Create-to-Earn" is nothing new, as seen repeatedly in our past observations of blockchain gaming projects.

Looking at the reaction on Crypto Twitter, NXPC's hype indeed benefits from the allure of the MapleStory IP and the dual effect of the wealth effect, but the community's focus is more on short-term gains rather than the long-term value of the game ecosystem. Another key point is that this is a South Korean game, and it is an undeniable fact that South Korean youth are enthusiastic about cryptocurrency trading, potentially driving NXPC's rise, with changes in indicators on Upbit perhaps playing a significant role in NXPC's fate.

However, you cannot judge the entire garden to be flourishing just because one flower has bloomed beautifully. The fate of blockchain gaming still hangs in the balance. MapleStory is embarking on a new adventure in the crypto world, but it faces more youths who have already exited due to losses in blockchain gaming.

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