Could Decreased Rates Boost Bitcoin to a $200K Value by 2025?

Key Points

• Bitcoin (BTC) reached $99K after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
• Experts predict that BTC could surge to $200K if it reclaims the $100K mark.

On May 8th, during the early Asian trading session, Bitcoin surged to $99K for the first time since February. This marked a 32% recovery from its April lows.

This rally occurred just hours after the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The Fed justified its decision by pointing to a solid labor market and persistent inflation.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Many experts predict further Fed rate cuts in Q3 2025. This could boost risk-on sentiment and extend Bitcoin’s rally. Matt Mena, a Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, shares this viewpoint.

Mena believes that a break above $100,000 could trigger a retest of the all-time high at $108,500. If adoption accelerates, Bitcoin could potentially exceed $200,000 by the end of the year. Factors such as U.S.-China trade talks and growing adoption of BTC by nation-states could further drive its value.

According to Mena, investors are increasingly favoring BTC over gold. This is evident from the fact that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) surpassed the most popular gold ETF in year-to-date (YTD) flows. In other words, BTC could rally harder in low-rate environments.

The recent recovery has been largely driven by U.S. investors, as indicated by the positive Coinbase Premium Index over the past two weeks. In the past week alone, U.S. spot BTC ETFs attracted $2 billion in inflows, pushing YTD inflows over $5B.

On the three-month liquidation heatmaps, BTC tapped key upside liquidity pockets at $98K and $100K. Further ahead, the $106K is another potential price magnet. On the lower side, liquidity zones were at $93K and $83K, which could serve as support levels in case of a pullback.

In the short term, Bitcoin could benefit from positive macro updates, particularly the U.S.-China trade talks. According to experts like Matt Mena, the mid-term also appears positive for the asset, especially if Fed rate cuts occur in Q3 2025.