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Another lower low yesterday followed by another bounce, but still no clear higher high on the lower timeframes. A few alts like $ASTER and $LISTA are starting to show some movement, with other pairs gradually joining in. If $BTC price manages to break above the 4H 20MA, a quick move toward the $96–98K area is possible. Not a confirmed trend reversal yet just something to keep on the radar as conditions shift and a short squeeze becomes more likely. On the side, I’ve been taking part in Bitget’s Onchain Challenge (Phase 28). The daily onchain tasks are straightforward, and earning small amounts $BGB along the way has been a nice bonus heading into the holiday period. Nothing major, but it’s a simple way to make regular activity a bit more rewarding.

JUST IN: Billionaire Ray Dalio says 1% of his portfolio is in Bitcoin.

JUST IN: Billionaire Ray Dalio says 1% of his portfolio is in Bitcoin.

🔍 Bitcoin 4H Deep Analysis – Major Support Test + Potential Falling Wedge Reversal Toward $128K Bitcoin is currently positioned at a critical decision point on the 4H timeframe, touching a major multi-month support zone that aligns with the lower boundary of a well-defined falling wedge, a pattern widely regarded as one of the strongest bullish reversal structures in technical analysis. With price action compressing and volatility tightening, BTC appears to be setting up for a potential breakout that could define the next major directional move. This analysis breaks down the structure, momentum, market psychology, and expected scenarios—giving you a complete, high-quality outlook for the coming sessions. 📌 1. Understanding the Structure: The Falling Wedge Pattern A falling wedge is a descending, contracting pattern marked by: Lower highs Lower lows A converging structure A downward-sloping support and resistance Volume reduction inside the pattern A statistically high probability of a bullish breakout In the chart, BTC has been trading inside this wedge for several months, starting from the late-summer peak. Each attempt to push higher was met with resistance, while each downward correction created a slightly less aggressive low—indicating that selling pressure is gradually weakening. This wedge is not small; it spans multiple months, which significantly increases its potential breakout strength. Longer formations typically generate larger continuation or reversal moves. Currently, BTC is at the apex zone, which is where major market decisions typically occur. This is the point where declining volatility often precedes a breakout, and the price action now is signaling the final phase of pattern completion. 📌 2. Current Price Behavior: Support Reaction at the Lower Trendline Bitcoin’s recent movement shows a clean touch of the lower wedge support, forming a potential bounce zone, highlighted by bullish wicks on the 4H timeframe. These wicks show that buyers stepped in aggressively during dips, rejecting further downside. This area is technically significant for three reasons: 1.Historical Support – Price has reacted to this trendline multiple times, validating it as a strong demand area. 2. Pattern Completion – BTC is at the final structural touch, a classic position before a breakout attempt. 3. Oversold Conditions – Oscillators such as RSI and Stochastic (commonly used for 4H swing analysis) typically show oversold conditions when price hits this kind of wedge support. These factors combined create a high-probability reaction zone where buyers traditionally regain control 📌 3. Squeeze Dynamics: Why Tightening Price Action Matters The consolidation inside the wedge has been progressively tightening. The range between support and resistance has shrunk drastically over the last few weeks, leading to a compression of volatility. Historically, compression often precedes expansion. This tightening behavior suggests the market is preparing for a strong directional move. When volatility gets squeezed at major technical levels, the move afterward tends to be aggressive. 📌 4. Volume and Market Psychology: What the Chart Is Telling Us Volume has been decreasing over the course of the wedge formation, which is exactly what we expect from a maturing falling wedge. A sustained downtrend with lower volume indicates that sellers are: either exhausted or unwilling to sell at lower levels This is a typical precursor to a bullish reversal. Market psychology here is critical: Sellers have dominated in the past weeks But their momentum is slowing Buyers are accumulating near key structural support If BTC breaks the wedge resistance with strong volume, it would confirm a shift in market sentiment from bearish exhaustion to bullish initiation 📌 5. Upside Projection: The Case for a Breakout Toward $128,351 The projected breakout target shown on the chart—$128,351—comes from measured-move analysis. In falling wedge structures, the target is often calculated by measuring the widest part of the wedge and projecting it upward from the breakout point. In this case: The wedge is large BTC volatility inside the wedge is significant A breakout from such a long-term formation often leads to multi-month impulse movements This lines up well with the projection shown on the chart, marking $128K as a potential next macro level. While not guaranteed, this target is technically valid and aligns with: previous liquidity zones symmetrical projection logic psychological round numbers Fibonacci extension regions (if applied) 📌 6. Key Technical Highlights To summarize the most important technical elements on the 4H chart: 🔹 Strong support retest at wedge bottom 🔹 Falling wedge structure nearing completion 🔹 Reduced selling momentum and declining downside volume 🔹 Bullish wicks signaling buyer absorption 🔹 Upside projection toward ~$128,000 based on measured-move patterns 🔹 Critical confirmation needed via breakout + volume expansion These signals collectively suggest a potential shift from bearish pressure to bullish momentum— especially if the breakout confirms 📌 7. What Needs to Happen for Confirmation Although the chart leans bullish, a breakout confirmation is crucial. A confirmed breakout requires: 1. Break Above Wedge Resistance The upper trendline must be broken convincingly. A simple candle wick is not enough—look for a full candle close above resistance. 2. Volume Spike Breakouts without volume often fail. Volume expansion validates that buyers are committed. 3. Retest (Optional but Powerful) Many strong wedge breakouts include a retest of the broken resistance, turning it into support. If BTC retests and holds, that significantly increases the probability of continuation. 4. Hold Above Key Levels (e.g., local S/R) BTC must maintain structure above recently reclaimed levels. Losing them invalidates bullish momentum. 📌 8. Downside Risk: What If the Support Fails? Although the bullish setup is strong, we must also recognize potential risks. If BTC breaks below the wedge support: The structure invalidates Bearish continuation becomes more likely Liquidity could be swept lower New support levels must be evaluated A breakdown could trigger: panic selling liquidation cascades retests of deeper demand zones For now, the price is holding the wedge support—so the bullish scenario is still valid. 📌 9. Why This Level Matters for the Bigger Picture This support zone is more than just a local bounce area. It aligns with: macro trendline support long-term cycle dynamics a key psychological region liquidity pools in the mid-$90K range structural exhaustion from sellers A reversal from here could signal: the beginning of the next multi-month bullish trend re-accumulation phase completion entry into the next expansion cycle Bitcoin often makes major macro moves from compression zones like this one 📌 10. How Traders Might Approach This Setup Bullish Traders They may look for: breakout retest entries early entries at support with tight stop-losses confirmation plays on volume expansion invalidation below wedge support Neutral Traders Likely to wait for: confirmation a clean breakout or a rejection Bearish Traders May look for: wedge failure closing below support bearish retest before continuation Regardless of approach, the key is understanding the market structure and respecting invalidation levels 📌 11. Final Outlook: What to Expect in the Coming Days BTC is approaching one of the most important breakout points on the 4H chart in months. The falling wedge is near completion, price is reacting strongly at support, and selling pressure is weakening. If BTC breaks above the wedge resistance with volume: ➡️ A strong rally toward $110K–$128K becomes a realistic target range. If BTC loses the support: ➡️ Expect deeper downside before any major reversal attempt. For now, the bullish potential remains intact as long as support holds. ✨ Summary Bitcoin is showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal from a multi-month falling wedge pattern. The structure indicates a high probability of upside, with a technical projection toward $128,351, provided that BTC confirms the breakout with volume. The next few 4H candles will be critical in determining whether BTC enters an explosive breakout phase or continues consolidating within the wedge.$BTC