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Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the $115,000 level after the Federal Reserve delivered the long-anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut. Key Takeaways • Bitcoin slipped below $115,000 following the Fed’s policy shift. • The Fed projected an additional 50 bps of cuts through 2025. • Futures open interest surged while spot volumes continued to decline. Fed Cut Brings Muted Market Reaction Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize above $115,000 after the U.S. central bank lowered its benchmark rate to 4.0%–4.25%. The immediate market response has been cautious, with $BTC briefly dipping under the key threshold before rebounding slightly. The FOMC statement noted slowing job growth, rising unemployment, and still-elevated inflation. Importantly, the Fed flagged increased downside risks to employment, leaning its policy stance more dovish. New forecasts point to another 50 basis points of rate cuts through 2025, reflecting the Fed’s growing concern over the balance of risks. While the committee reaffirmed its 2% inflation target, the emphasis shifted toward supporting growth and jobs. Notably, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a 50-bps cut instead of 25, reinforcing expectations that the central bank is preparing for a more accommodative path. Bitcoin’s Sluggish Response Despite the dovish tilt, Bitcoin’s price action has been subdued, with consolidation dominating over momentum. Traders appear cautious, weighing the Fed’s easing outlook against uncertainty around inflation and global risk sentiment. Analyst Nic Puckrin suggested the cut may already be priced in, increasing the chance of a short-term “sell the news” reaction. While looser policy generally supports risk assets in the long run, crypto markets could face near-term volatility before any sustained upside emerges. Futures vs. Spot: Diverging Signals Immediately after the FOMC decision, $BTC open interest surged, showing futures traders positioning for volatility. However, spot trading volumes continued to decline, highlighting a lack of fresh demand in the underlying market. The FOMC statement noted slowing job growth, rising unemployment, and still-elevated inflation. Importantly, the Fed flagged increased downside risks to employment, leaning its policy stance more dovish. New forecasts point to another 50 basis points of rate cuts through 2025, reflecting the Fed’s growing concern over the balance of risks. While the committee reaffirmed its 2% inflation target, the emphasis shifted toward supporting growth and jobs. Notably, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a 50-bps cut instead of 25, reinforcing expectations that the central bank is preparing for a more accommodative path. Bitcoin’s Sluggish Response Despite the dovish tilt, Bitcoin’s price action has been subdued, with consolidation dominating over momentum. Traders appear cautious, weighing the Fed’s easing outlook against uncertainty around inflation and global risk sentiment. Analyst Nic Puckrin suggested the cut may already be priced in, increasing the chance of a short-term “sell the news” reaction. While looser policy generally supports risk assets in the long run, crypto markets could face near-term volatility before any sustained upside emerges. Futures vs. Spot: Diverging Signals Immediately after the FOMC decision, $BTC open interest surged, showing futures traders positioning for volatility. However, spot trading volumes continued to decline, highlighting a lack of fresh demand in the underlying market. The FOMC statement noted slowing job growth, rising unemployment, and still-elevated inflation. Importantly, the Fed flagged increased downside risks to employment, leaning its policy stance more dovish. New forecasts point to another 50 basis points of rate cuts through 2025, reflecting the Fed’s growing concern over the balance of risks. While the committee reaffirmed its 2% inflation target, the emphasis shifted toward supporting growth and jobs. Notably, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a 50-bps cut instead of 25, reinforcing expectations that the central bank is preparing for a more accommodative path. Bitcoin’s Sluggish Response Despite the dovish tilt, Bitcoin’s price action has been subdued, with consolidation dominating over momentum. Traders appear cautious, weighing the Fed’s easing outlook against uncertainty around inflation and global risk sentiment. Analyst Nic Puckrin suggested the cut may already be priced in, increasing the chance of a short-term “sell the news” reaction. While looser policy generally supports risk assets in the long run, crypto markets could face near-term volatility before any sustained upside emerges. Futures vs. Spot: Diverging Signals Immediately after the FOMC decision, $BTC open interest surged, showing futures traders positioning for volatility. However, spot trading volumes continued to decline, highlighting a lack of fresh demand in the underlying market.

Spot gold prices recently surged to a record high of $3,703 per ounce before settling around $3,685 at the time of this analysis. This upward trend is largely driven by investor anticipation of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy, with a widely expected 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut and potential for further easing, according to FXStreet. Driving factors Anticipation of Fed rate cuts: Expectations of lower interest rates by the Fed are a major catalyst for gold's rally. Lower interest rates typically weaken the US dollar, making gold, which is denominated in dollars, more attractive to holders of other currencies. Additionally, lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold compared to interest-bearing alternatives like bonds. Dovish Fed outlook: Beyond the immediate rate cut, markets are also pricing in the possibility of further rate reductions and a more dovish stance from the Fed in the future, further fueling gold's upward momentum. Economic Uncertainty and Safe Haven Demand: Persistent geopolitical tensions and concerns about a potential economic slowdown, or even recession, are driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Gold’s historical stability and lack of correlation with other assets make it a preferred choice during periods of market volatility. Strong Central Bank Demand: Central banks globally, particularly from emerging economies like China, India, and Turkey, have been consistently increasing their gold reserves to diversify assets and enhance their currencies’ stability in turbulent times. This robust demand from official institutions significantly supports gold prices. Market movements Record high and subsequent consolidation: Gold surged to a new record high of $3,703 per ounce before experiencing a slight pullback as traders engaged in profit-taking. Inverse relationship with the US dollar and Treasuries: Gold typically exhibits an inverse correlation with the US dollar and US Treasury yields. The recent weakening of the dollar and subdued Treasury yields are contributing to gold's current strength. Outlook and technical analysis Bullish bias despite short-term pullbacks: Despite some recent profit-taking and potential for short-term corrections, the overall trend for gold remains bullish. Key support and resistance levels: Technical analysis points to immediate support around $3,650-$3,645, while the all-time high of $3,703 serves as a key resistance level. A breakout above this level could pave the way for further gains towards $3,750 and even $3,800. FXStreet notes that a decisive breakout could lead to an extension of the uptrend. Overbought conditions and potential for correction: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating overbought conditions, suggesting that a pullback might be needed before the next leg up in the rally. Impact of Fed's forward guidance: The market will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for insights into the future path of interest rates. A dovish outlook would further support gold, while a more cautious stance could trigger a deeper correction. In conclusion, the gold market is currently experiencing strong upward momentum driven by expectations of lower interest rates, safe-haven demand, and robust central bank buying. While some profit-taking and technical pullbacks are possible in the near term, the overall outlook for gold remains bullish, particularly if the Fed adopts a dovish tone in its forward guidance. Investors should carefully monitor the Fed's decisions and statements, alongside other key economic indicators, to navigate this dynamic market.

Since 2022, Bitcoin $BTC has only rallied when global central bank liquidity was falling — which may seem counterintuitive but could signal money leaving banks and flowing into risk assets. Currently, central banks hold $30.4T, while Global M2 stands at $128.1T — and liquidity is rising again. This suggests capital is flowing back into banks or that some countries are still printing money. Watch closely: when global central bank liquidity starts to drop again, it could set the stage for the next crypto rally!

XRP remains above the $3.00 level, with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3.014, providing additional support. A minor reversal of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to 51.5+ on the 4-hour chart supports XRP’s short-term bullish potential. A bullish reversal above the next key hurdle at $3.186, which was last tested on Saturday, would boost the chances of a bullish outcome toward the round-number supply area of $3.50 and the record high of $3.66. Conversely, XRP is not out of the woods yet, and declines below $3.00 are still on the cards. With the Fed likely to cut interest rates by 25 bps, attention could shift to the Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks after the meeting. Investors would be waiting to see the central bank’s outlook for the remainder of the year and whether further rate cuts are expected. In the event of a hawkish stance, which could dampen the macro outlook, traders should also prepare for a short-term correction, likely to bring the 100-day EMA at $2.984 and the 200-day EMA at $2.97 within reach. $XRP

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