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I think we will see a major breakdown in the equity market within the next months, latest Q2 2026. Before you laugh I‘m NONE of those „doom posters“ that always talk about an impending crash but I talk about it when I think the time is right. Having this said I CAN NOT SAY when exactly the crash will happen. Markets can stay irrational and trend higher before major turndowns than most of us think. The signs will be in the charts on majors: - Swing Failure Patterns on HTF - Rejections fib extensions - Bullish HTF HOBs turning into bearish ones - Market Structure changes…. We are prepared Knowledge wise. We can spot weakness when it appears. Having this said these are the reasons I think a recession is likely to happen: 1. The yield curve un-inversion is a proven late-cycle marker. History is consistent: the big crashes of 2000, 2008, and 2020 didn’t line up with the inversion itself, but with the un-inversion when the Fed began cutting. That’s not random. It’s because un-inversion happens when the economy is already rolling over and the Fed is forced into easing. Stocks typically lag that reality. 2. Market Money Fund (MMF) Levels are at record size (7.5 trillion) Think of it as a giant “cash parking lot” for investors. A money market fund pools money from investors and invests it in very short-term, safe assets like: •U.S. Treasury bills (T-Bills) •Repurchase agreements (repos) •Commercial paper (short-term corporate debt) Investors use MMFs because they’re liquid (easy to access) and pay a yield (right now ~5%) with very low risk compared to stocks or long-term bonds. When MMFs swell to record size (like the current $7.5 trillion), it signals investors prefer safety and guaranteed yield over risk assets like stocks or crypto. Wall Street likes to spin it as “dry powder” ready to flow into equities. In reality, it’s a symptom of late-cycle caution — the same thing we saw in 2000 and 2007, right before major crashes. 3. Rising long yields into Fed cuts is unusual and potentially dangerous. Normally, when the Fed cuts, both short and long yields fall. That’s a sign of easing working. But right now, long yields (10Y, 30Y) are rising due to Inflation fears and less confidence into a stable future. demand higher long yields to compensate their loss of confidence. This is potentially dangerous because mortgages, car loans, student loans — all tied to long rates — get more expensive even while the Fed “eases.” 4. Weak Labor and Inflation Data Nonfarm Payrolls (August 2025) grew by only +22,000 jobs. That is very low, well below what used to be expected. The unemployment rate is ~ 4.3% as of August. It hasn’t moved much recently, but the growth in unemployment and stagnant job creation suggest labor demand is cooling. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics cut its estimate of job creation by ~911,000 jobs for the 12 months ending March 2025 compared to earlier reports. That’s a major downgrade, indicating that what appeared strong growth was weaker than thought. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (for all items) in August 2025 is +2.9%. Core CPI (excluding food & energy) is about +3.1% over the last 12 months. That’s higher than the Fed’s target (around 2%) and indicates persistent inflation pressure in less volatile components. This combination — weak labor, persistent inflation — points to a stagflation-like risk or at least a scenario where the Fed is under pressure: cut rates to ease labor stress, but inflation might push back - not exactly a soft landing story „But Phoenix all of this blabla about recession dangers and you don’t even know when it will kick in, it could be months lol“ True. But I will have cash aside when it happens to buy the crash. And I keep in mind that major HTF supply levels could lead into a more severe retrace than we expect.

RT @CryptoHuTrading: $ETH Update Critical level here — 4600 swept. Watching if ETH gives one more push higher before reversal, or if momen…

$XLM Price Prediction: #Stellar Eyes $0.44 Target Before September End Despite Mixed Signals XLM price prediction suggests a push toward $0.44 resistance within two weeks, though bears target $0.34 support if current momentum fails to sustain above $0.40.

🚨 Brazil’s crypto tax overhaul could reshape the market. A flat 17.5% rate scraps the exemption for small trades, hitting retail hardest while easing taxes for the wealthy. As @fabiotonetto of @coinbase explains in this piece by @c_grigera , this could push innovation abroad 👇🏻