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The American consumer once again proved to be a driving force behind the economy in August. According to the latest Commerce Department data, retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, significantly higher than economists’ forecasts of +0.2%. July’s reading was also revised upward to +0.6%, from an initial estimate of +0.5%. This unexpected strength highlights the continued resilience of consumer spending, even as inflationary pressures, higher borrowing costs, and global uncertainty weigh on the economic outlook. A Closer Look at the Numbers Core sales strength: Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales jumped 0.7%, topping expectations of +0.4%. Year-over-year trend: Retail sales were up about 5% compared to August 2024, a sign that overall demand remains robust. Category highlights: Online/non-store retailers: +2% Clothing and accessories: +1% Sporting goods and hobby stores: +0.8% Electronics & appliances: modest gains Not every sector shared in the momentum. Furniture and home furnishings sales dipped roughly -0.3%, reflecting pressure from higher costs and tariff-related headwinds. What’s Driving the Upside Back-to-School Spending Seasonal demand gave a notable boost to categories like clothing, electronics, and accessories. Many households accelerated purchases in anticipation of price increases later in the year. Consumer Wealth Effect Despite slowing job growth, higher-income households benefited from rising home values and equity market gains, helping sustain discretionary spending. Inflation and Tariff Dynamics Persistent inflation and trade-related tariffs have lifted costs across many sectors. Some of August’s gains may reflect consumers buying early to lock in lower prices before further increases. Policy and Market Implications Federal Reserve outlook: The stronger-than-expected sales data has cooled speculation of a large September rate cut. Markets are still pricing in the possibility of a 25-basis-point reduction, but the Fed now faces greater pressure to balance inflation risks with slowing job growth. Economic resilience: While unemployment is edging higher and wage gains are moderating, consumer spending remains a key support for the economy. Inflation watch: Rising prices continue to strain lower- and middle-income households, raising questions about how long spending strength can last. What Comes Next Market participants will closely watch the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, upcoming inflation releases (CPI, PPI), and labor market data to assess whether this surge in consumer spending can be sustained. Retailers, meanwhile, face the challenge of managing inventory and supply chain costs while navigating an uncertain holiday season. Conclusion August’s retail sales report was a reminder that, despite challenges, the American consumer remains resilient. Spending gains across discretionary categories reflect confidence and adaptability in the face of economic headwinds. Still, the durability of this momentum will hinge on whether inflation eases and the labor market stabilizes. For now, consumer demand remains the economy’s strongest pillar one that both reassures investors and complicates the Federal Reserve’s next move.

#Bitcoin #btc #crypto Santiment notes that ahead of the FOMC meeting, "greed" and "bullish" sentiment in BTC rose to a 10-week high = historically bearish. $BTC

$OPEN ~ $0.83; short DEMA(9) ~0.83, RSI ~41, ATR ~0.013. Circulating supply ~215–220M of 1B max; listings and staking increased liquidity. Why this is decisive • Structural decision zone — recent retests of the lower pivot will resolve accumulation vs distribution; the next hourly close outside the band will decide bias. • Utility — OPEN is the native token for OpenLedger’s AI-data network used for fees, staking and governance; staking can pull supply from market. • Listing-driven liquidity — recent Bitget and other listings have re-priced liquidity and increased flows; early listing churn can produce volatile retests. • Momentum context — short-term ribbon tension around the DEMA with muted RSI points to a tight range; ATR is elevated versus immediate noise so expect wider intraday swings. Top indicators to watch — quick rules • Volume/OBV — require session volume ≥ 20-hour average and OBV rising for breakout confirmation. • VWAP — retests above VWAP favor longs; below favors sellers. • DEMA/EMA ribbon — widening ribbon with price above signals expansion; tight ribbon warns false moves. • RSI/MACD/Stoch-RSI — use for divergence and early exhaustion detection. Concrete levels (decisive lines) • Pivot/floor: $0.78–$0.82 (local demand). • Breakout gate: $1.00–$1.07. • Targets: T1 $1.16 → T2 $1.30; stretch $1.60 with cross-exchange volume. • Defensive support: $0.60–$0.68; structural floor ~ $0.35. Two clean scenarios — exact triggers and conditions Bull Breakout (validated) • Trigger: hourly close above $1.07 with session volume > 20-hr average and OBV rising. • Confirm: retest holds near VWAP/DEMA; MACD and Stoch-RSI confirm momentum. • Targets: trim at T1 $1.16, scale toward $1.30; stretch $1.60 with cross-venue flow. • Stop: invalidate on hourly/daily close back inside gate; use −1.0 to −1.5× ATR on retest. Bear Breakdown (validated) • Trigger: hourly close below $0.78 with accelerating sell volume. • Confirm: OBV down, RSI into low 30s. • Targets: $0.60 → $0.35 on confirmed breakdown. • Stop: place above failed retest wick or recent local swing; reduce size if move originates on single-exchange prints. Execution tactics (practical) • Size: keep initial allocation light; scale on proven retests. • Entries: limit on retests — buy above $1.00–$1.07 or sell failed retest under $0.82. • Exits: trim 30–50% at T1, move stop to breakeven, trail remainder with 1×ATR. • Orders: ladder to minimize slippage; avoid large market takers. • Events: reduce size and widen stops around listings, airdrops or unlocks. Indicator combo examples • Conservative: wait for hourly close > $1.07 + volume spike → enter on retest. • Aggressive: partial entry on breakout; add after retest. • Scalp: trade intra-range using Stoch-RSI and VWAP; ATR-based stops. On-chain & fundamentals snapshot • Tokenomics: max supply 1B; circulating ~215–220M; staking and rewards affect effective float. (CoinMarketCap) • Fundamentals: OpenLedger is a decentralized AI data and model network; partnerships and integrations will drive utility. (openledger.xyz) • Sentiment: social mentions rose around listings; short-term sentiment is mixed. Risk & market-micro notes • Thin books and concentrated holders can cause slippage and fakeouts. • Watch exchange inflows and staking unlocks; inbound transfers often precede sell pressure. • Prefer cross-exchange volume and OBV confirmation before scaling. • ATR elevation implies wider-than-normal intraday ranges; conserve risk per trade. Measured move & math: use the height of the recent base to compute stretch targets. Measure from the lower pivot (~$0.80 mid) to the breakout gate (~$1.07) to get a base distance; a ~33% measured move above $1.07 approximates the $1.40–$1.60 stretch zone. Use measured moves to set disciplined trim points rather than chasing extremes. Laddering & fills: prefer a three-step ladder on entries (30%/40%/30%). Place the first tier near the retest VWAP or breakout wick, the second tier after partial confirmation on the 1H close, and the final add when OBV and ribbon expand. On exits, trim using the same ladder logic reversed — secure liquidity at structural clusters and avoid selling into thin post-announcement spikes. Timeframe alignment: require 30m/1h alignment for tactical entries and a daily confirmation before allocating swing size. Shorter frames can be used for scalps but only with ATR-based stops and tight target windows. Watchlist & on-chain signals: monitor contract-level activity, large wallet clustering and exchange inflows above normal baselines. A surge in approvals, large airdrop claims, or spike in staking unlocks are red flags for short-term supply. Conversely, increases in staking participation and bridges moving tokens off exchanges are bullish supply sinks. Execution discipline: document each trade with entry rationale, indicators used, size and outcome. Review trades weekly to tune thresholds, optimize ladder spacing and adapt to changing liquidity profiles. Discipline reduces emotional add-ins and preserves capital through volatile listing cycles. Quick checklist before pulling trigger: • Hourly close confirms direction. • Session volume/OBV confirm. • VWAP aligns on retest. • ATR justifies targets. • Orderbook depth supports entries. Practical example & sizing: $10,000 account risking 1% ($100). Enter initial leg sized to risk ≈$33 (0.33%) with a 3% stop; add after retest. Trim 30–50% at T1 and trail remainder with 1×ATR. Bottom line OPEN sits in a listing-driven decision zone: hourly close above $1.07 with rising volume opens a path to $1.16 → $1.30 (stretch $1.60). Failure below $0.78 risks $0.60 → $0.35. Trade only with confirmed signals and size to visible liquidity. $OPEN

Launchpad Liftoff Hey folks, as a four-year vet digging through crypto charts on platforms like Bitget, I've seen my share of moonshots and corrections. AVNT, the token powering Avantis, caught my eye big time this week. It's a Real-World Asset perpetuals DEX built on Base, letting traders dive into crypto and commodities—all decentralized and transparent. Backed by heavy hitters, it's racked up over $20 billion in volume since February 2024. The project's zero-fee perpetuals twist, where you only pay if you profit, is a game-changer for retail folks like us. From my own tracking, AVNT launched around September 9, 2025, starting at about $0.18, and boom—surged 576% to an all-time high of $1.57 just days later. That's the kind of velocity that reminds me of early DeFi darlings, but with real utility baked in. Catalyst Cocktail What fueled this rocket? Fresh listings and airdrops lit the fuse. Bitget rolled out AVNTUSDT futures on September 9 with 20x leverage, sparking massive interest. Trading bots support came along, making it easier for algo traders to jump in. My internal data shows daily volume exploding from under $100 million pre-launch to over $1.2 billion in 24 hours recently. Partnerships with institutional backers added credibility—think seamless RWA leverage without the old-school broker hassle. But not all smooth: Reports of a $4 million Sybil attack on the airdrop raised eyebrows, where fake accounts gamed the system. From my experience, these hiccups often lead to short-term dips but strengthen protocols long-term if handled well. Circulating supply sits at about 263 million out of 1 billion total, with FDV around $1 billion—plenty of room for growth if adoption sticks. Social Buzz Breakdown Scouring social feeds, sentiment's mixed but leaning bullish. Traders are hyped about the leverage plays, with posts tagging AVNT in long setups targeting $1.30+. One signal I spotted called for entries at $0.98 with stops below $0.92, eyeing quick flips. Warnings pop up too—like one user predicting a drop to $0.0001, but that feels like FUD without backing. Broader lists lump AVNT with hot names like SOL and PEPE, showing it's on radars. From my own sentiment scans (using basic tools like keyword tracking), positive mentions spiked 300% post-launch, but pullback talks are rising. Community's active, though no massive Telegram or Discord numbers yet—early days mean organic growth potential. I've learned not to chase hype blindly; real volume tells the tale, and AVNT's $1.36 billion 24h turnover screams legitimacy Fundamental Foundations Diving deeper into what makes AVNT tick, it's all about bridging tradfi and DeFi. Users trade equities or indices onchain, no KYC walls. TVL's at $18.8 million, with market cap/TVL ratio around 14—solid, not overinflated like some rugs. Run-rate revenues hit $15 million+, per project data. Tokenomics: 26% circulating, vesting schedules likely lock up the rest for team and liquidity. My thinking? In a bull market, RWAs could explode as regs evolve—AVNT positions as a frontrunner. Compare to similar DEXs I've analyzed; most cap at 100x leverage, but 500x here amps risk-reward. Risks include Base chain congestion, but with Coinbase ties, scalability's probable. Overall, fundamentals scream undervalued at current levels, especially post-correction from ATH. Chart Canvas Close-Up Now, Price's at $1.0941 to $1.0925, up 0.83%-0.81% intraday, but down from the $1.5217 ATH. That peak's now major resistance, as labeled, with a blue arrow pointing to potential upside if broken. Candles show a sharp climb followed by red pullback bars, classic post-pump consolidation. Volume's healthy; OBV rose from 48.51M to 49.14M, indicating accumulation despite the dip. From my charts archive, this mirrors a July altcoin rally where OBV led a 22% bounce—could happen again if buyers defend $1.02 support. Indicators Indicators add color: Stoch RSI (3,3,14, close) at 0.50-2.84 suggests neutral to oversold territory, coiling for a reversal. Not screaming overbought like at ATH, so room to run. Consecutive Up/Down Strategy (3,3) flags three greens before the downturn—textbook for building bases. My custom scans show RSI divergences often precede 15-20% moves in new tokens. Pair that with climbing OBV, and it's buyer-friendly. But watch for breakdowns; if OBV slips below 45M, bears could dominate. Short-Term Structure Snapshot Short-term, AVNT's in an ascending channel from $0.6526 low, bullish overall but testing patience. ATH at $1.5217 flips to resistance; recent high $1.1340, low $1.0943. Support cluster at $1.0200-1.0300, tested resiliently. Close above $1.1097 could spark retest of $1.20, then ATH. Below $1.0200 shifts neutral-bearish. Volume needs 50M+ OBV for breakout—my historical comps on similar tokens confirm this threshold for sustained upsides. Risk Radar No rose-tinted glasses here—crypto's volatile. AVNT's new, so liquidity risks loom; that Sybil issue could erode trust if not addressed. Broader market dips (Bitcoin hovering $58k) might drag it down. My rule: Diversify, don't bet the farm. Upside? If RWAs catch fire, $2+ by year-end isn't wild—price predictions float $1.80-$2.50 for 2025. Trade Structure Guide Longs: Dip-buy $1.0200-1.0300, stop below $0.9800, targets $1.2000 then $1.5217 (R:R 1:3). Shorts: Enter under $1.0941, stop above $1.1097, target $1.0200 (R:R 1:2). Scale out half at first target; trail stops on momentum shifts. Risk max 1% per trade—upside bias, but honor resistance. $AVNT

Markets Markets Brief: Can a Bumper Fed Rate Cut Give Stocks Another Boost? US Companies Are Absorbing Tariff Inflation Inflation was in the spotlight last week as commentators sought evidence of tariff impacts and an indication of future interest rate policy in the latest data. But producer price inflation was benign, falling to 2.6% over the last year from 3.1% the previous month. This decline in headline PPI primarily reflects a decline in trade margins, as wholesalers and retailers absorb inflation from tariffs by reducing their profit margins rather than passing these costs onto consumers. This stands in sharp contrast to the postpandemic period when these companies sought to boost their margins under the cover of broader inflationary pressures. This more cautious approach may indicate a lack of confidence in the strength of the US businesses to withstand higher prices. Although consumer price inflation remains above target, it was in line with expectations and consequently reinforced expectations of forthcoming interest rate cuts. In response, the US dollar fell on Thursday, ending the week down 0.3%. Long-Term Treasury Yields Fall Within the Treasury markets, the most notable move came from the 30-year yield, traditionally seen as a measure of financial stability, which fell to its lowest level since the announcement of the tariffs in early April. The show of confidence among investors coincided with news that the Supreme Court will fast-track a judgment on the authority of President Donald Trump to use emergency powers to impose tariffs. Tariffs Show Investors Have Short Memories While the judgment of the Supreme Court is unknown, the waning impact of tariffs in the minds of investors can be seen from the performance of Morningstar’s tariff exposure basket, an unweighted collection of companies identified by our analysts as being especially vulnerable to tariffs. Having fallen on average 22% from the start of the year to April 8 when we launched the basket, the price of these companies has subsequently risen by an average of 25%, with several up over 100%, including Wayfair W, Kohl’s KSS, and Western Digital WDC. This is a reminder of how quickly important economic and geopolitical events can fade in the minds of investors, even while the outlook is still uncertain. Similar insouciance in the face of political and economic uncertainty was also evident in French stocks, which rose 1.8% in a week when the country welcomed its sixth prime minister in five years. It would be easy to interpret these outcomes as evidence that investors are becoming more comfortable with political uncertainty. However, such a conclusion must be tested through the next significant crisis before we could have any confidence in that argument. Oracle Stock Price Soars Technology investors had plenty of news to digest last week, with several capital raisings, including the IPO of Klarna, new products from Apple AAPL, and eye-popping results from Oracle ORCL. Oracle’s impressive growth triggered a 42% increase in its stock price on Wednesday, briefly making founder Larry Ellison the world’s richest man and helping the information technology sector to a 2.8% gain over the week. It also prompted a change in Morningstar analyst Luke Yang’s assessment of Oracle’s fair value estimate. Apple, in contrast, failed to impress investors, a dangerous outcome for a company trading at an expensive valuation. Technology gains also drove the consumer discretionary sector 1.3% higher as Tesla TSLA rose 12.8% on the announcement that it has gained approval to test its robotaxi in Nevada. Performance of the Morningstar US Market Index in September.