Bitcoin Updates: Major Investors and Institutions Increase Bitcoin Holdings While Hayes Maintains $250K Prediction

Arthur Hayes Maintains Optimism for Bitcoin’s Future

Arthur Hayes, one of the founders of BitMEX, has reiterated his positive outlook for Bitcoin, maintaining that the cryptocurrency is still on course to reach a value of $250,000. This comes even after Bitcoin experienced a sharp 30% decline from its October high of $126,000, with prices recently hovering around $87,000. The recent downturn has been linked to several factors, including significant outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reduced liquidity in stablecoins, rapid unwinding of leveraged positions, and evolving macroeconomic conditions.

ETF Outflows and Market Pressures

In November alone, Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.5 billion in redemptions, with major funds such as iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Grayscale’s GBTC recording consecutive days of outflows. Experts believe that for Bitcoin to regain upward momentum, the market would need to see at least $1 billion in new weekly inflows—an amount that currently seems out of reach.

Institutional Sentiment and On-Chain Trends

The recent price drop has been intensified by waning confidence among institutional investors. Since the October peak, large asset managers have largely halted their Bitcoin accumulation, removing a key source of price support. This retreat followed a massive $19 billion leveraged liquidation event on October 10, which disrupted Bitcoin’s previous upward trajectory and established a new resistance zone between $98,000 and $102,000.

On-chain analytics show a divergence in behavior among Bitcoin holders. Notably, mid-sized investors—those with wallets containing between 100 and 1,000 BTC—have increased their holdings by 0.47% since mid-November, indicating that some are taking advantage of lower prices to accumulate more Bitcoin.

Institutional Adoption Continues

Despite short-term volatility, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. Hyperscale Data, a company specializing in AI data centers, has expanded its Bitcoin reserves to $70.5 million, holding 382.9384 BTC. The company also plans to invest an additional $37.25 million, aiming for a $100 million Bitcoin treasury.

In another example, the state of Texas allocated half of its $10 million Bitcoin investment budget to purchase the asset through BlackRock’s IBIT, with an average acquisition price of $87,000 per coin. These developments highlight the growing embrace of Bitcoin by institutional players, even amid market turbulence.

Regulatory Developments Shape the Industry

Regulatory changes are also influencing the cryptocurrency landscape. The United Arab Emirates’ Federal Decree Law No. 6, set to take effect on September 16, 2025, will extend regulatory oversight to decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, middleware, and infrastructure providers. This new law eliminates the “just code” defense for unlicensed activities. While individuals can still self-custody their assets, any service facilitating payments or transfers will now require proper licensing. These measures are part of a broader global movement to integrate digital assets into traditional financial systems, potentially supporting more sustainable long-term adoption.

Macro Factors and Market Recovery

Wider economic trends continue to play a crucial role. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent shift toward a more accommodative stance has introduced new uncertainties, with market expectations for a rate cut at the December meeting rising to 80%. Comments from Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have fueled speculation that looser monetary policy could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. Hayes attributes the recent decline in Bitcoin’s price largely to liquidity constraints linked to the Fed’s quantitative tightening, which concluded on December 1. He points out that historical indicators, such as the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and global liquidity indexes, suggest the market may be oversold—a condition that has often preceded recoveries in the past.

Signs of Stabilization and Outlook

Recent market activity hints at possible stabilization. On November 27, Bitcoin rebounded to $90,000, buoyed by a $70 billion liquidity injection as U.S. government operations resumed following a six-week pause. Institutional capital flows have also shifted, with Ethereum ETFs attracting $61 million in new investments, suggesting a rotation toward the second-largest cryptocurrency. Nonetheless, analysts warn that risks such as unexpected inflation or reduced liquidity during the holiday season could still pose challenges to recovery.

Looking Ahead: The Path to $250,000

Arthur Hayes’ ambitious $250,000 target for Bitcoin depends on overcoming these immediate hurdles. While the current environment remains uncertain, Bitcoin’s historical resilience, combined with ongoing institutional interest and evolving regulatory frameworks, supports a positive long-term outlook. As the Federal Reserve’s policy direction becomes clearer and liquidity conditions improve, the foundation may be laid for the next major upward move in Bitcoin’s price.