Institutions: Still Do Not Expect Fed Rate Cuts This Year, Inflation Stickiness Remains a Key Issue

On August 6, SWBC Chief Investment Officer Chris Brigati stated that he remains skeptical about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. The most likely scenario is a single rate cut in 2024, with an even greater possibility of no cuts at all. The Fed has maintained a high degree of consistency in its policy communication and continues to approach its decision-making process with caution and patience. This week, Trump will have the opportunity to appoint new Federal Reserve governors, which could shift the distribution of voting members' stances within the Fed. Brigati also noted that his core reason for being cautious about rate cuts is the persistent issue of sticky inflation. The Fed has repeatedly emphasized its strong focus on inflation's stickiness. Although they have previously downplayed the impact of employment data, their stance seems to have softened recently. However, unless there are more clear signs of deterioration in the labor market, the scope for rate cuts will remain very limited. At present, the only available reference is the latest nonfarm payroll data, but the real concern is that inflation may remain elevated or even worsen. If the Fed cuts rates while inflation is still high or rising, it will inevitably create new policy challenges.